Risk of death for 12-15yo is ~1 in 40-60,000 Risk of hospitalization is ~1 in 1,000(?) So vaccinating 1M 12-15yo could potentially prevent ~20 deaths and 1,000 hospitalizations? I see how we'd want a large trial sample to assess safety. I think the authors ask: is 1,131 enough?
Again, it comes back to the question of risk, which is I think where we disagree. What level of risk would you say is acceptable to consider an EUA for COVID-19 vaccines?
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Personally I'd suggest the risk should be signif. greater than, say, the typical winter burden of respiratory illness. Due to the nature of exponentials (in risk), a wide range of thresholds are consistent with a view that most kids are below the threshold, most adults above it.
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Given that the risk of both general respiratory illness and COVID-19 are exponential in gradient (although COVID-19 has a far steeper curve), I'm confused by that argument
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