This is one of the most interesting and thoughtful examinations of the impacts of Shelter-In-Place (SIP) orders on transmission of COVID-19 in early 2020 that I have seenhttps://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e2019706118#sec-2 …
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The authors basically ask the question - taking into account varying lags, and ignoring other interventions, did SIPs make a difference to cases or deaths in different states And broadly, they don't appear to
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However, there seems to have been a good reason for this. The impact of SIPs in the early pandemic on mobility (using their acknowledged imperfect metric) was minuscule at less than 1%pic.twitter.com/LWey81F41m
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This is reflected in the NEGATIVE impact of SIPs, which don't appear to make a large difference in unemployment rates either. Indeed, it appears as if SIPs had little marginal benefit OR harm in early 2020 USpic.twitter.com/WMNST065xH
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The authors then spend a great deal of time talking about why this is all uncertain, and in no way should their study be taken as evidence that government interventions DON'T workpic.twitter.com/4FJbrfQklC
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I've been saying something similar for some time - if everyone's already staying at home, the marginal benefit and downside to additional COVID-19 interventions is likely to be small
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In the early pandemic, when many people were voluntarily distancing to a huge extent, both benefits and harms from SIPs and similar were probably mutedpic.twitter.com/qXj01TyO70
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