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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 3
      Replying to @martbrod

      As many explanations as there are places, but often the simplest reason is that they don't "match", they just look vaguely similar when plotted on graphs which is not the same thing at all

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 3
      Replying to @GidMK @martbrod

      I mean, try plotting, say, Brazil, Zambia, and the Northern Territory in Australia. They're wildly dissimilar, but at very similar latitudes. Or Lithuania vs Ontario vs Kazakhstan vs northern China

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Martin Brodeur‏ @martbrod May 3
      Replying to @GidMK

      There’s a regionality factor because seasonality is based partly on humidity and temperature and these two can vary a lot for the same latitude even on the same continent. That’s why you can’t compare Oregon and NY, but big clusters of states at same latitude are matching

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Martin Brodeur‏ @martbrod May 3
      Replying to @martbrod @GidMK

      Martin Brodeur Retweeted Martin Brodeur

      https://twitter.com/martbrod/status/1380241882698149896 …

      Martin Brodeur added,

      Martin Brodeur @martbrod
      1/4 Seasonality is amazing natural phenomenon! 4 regions of the United States that follow the same curve based mainly on latitude. #1 is the most southern states where it's mainly over for now, notice the small bump last summer (as predicted by Hope-Simpson for north tropical) pic.twitter.com/WdPOI1bzBC
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 3
      Replying to @martbrod

      Here's a fun activity - I can think of at least a dozen reasons that states which border each other might have visually similar numbers when plotted on the same graph that have nothing to do with seasons. Can you name 5 of them?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Martin Brodeur‏ @martbrod May 3
      Replying to @GidMK

      Seasonality =/= seasons It’s more about the fact that climate follows patterns that are modulated by seasons. The spring curve was only observed in north-east and the summer hump only in the south. My fun activity I propose: let’s see in July if the same hump appears in the south

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 3
      Replying to @martbrod

      Cool cool, so you can't think of any other explanations? Because many of them are really quite simple

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Martin Brodeur‏ @martbrod May 3
      Replying to @GidMK

      And exclude climate? I would say local travelling within the given region, regional social behaviour patterns, immunity induced by previous regional outbreaks of other viruses, proportion if ethnic groups with different immunity

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 3
      Replying to @martbrod

      Right, so you'd agree that seasonality is one potential explanation among literally dozens for why those lines might appear somewhat similar when you graph them together?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Martin Brodeur‏ @martbrod May 3
      Replying to @GidMK

      Yes, but they can only explain part of the picture. I didn’t say seasonality is the only factor, but it’s the main driver of the trend ⬆️⬇️ of the curves. Other factors like immunity and human interactions will determine how high/low the curve goes

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 3
      Replying to @martbrod

      I'd argue that there's literally no evidence that is the case (theories that were considered outdated in 1992 don't really count), and that explanations like "those curves look similar for most of the US" make much more sense

      4:32 PM - 3 May 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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