It means that I think this theory is both very out of date and not well supported
-
-
Replying to @GidMK
Ok, so how do you explain or name the phenomenon by which the epidemic curves for covid19 matches for vast regions that are at the same latitude? i.e. northeastern US states, Ontario and Québec. Or the southern states like TX, LA, MS, AL, GA and Florida? How can they all match?
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @martbrod
As many explanations as there are places, but often the simplest reason is that they don't "match", they just look vaguely similar when plotted on graphs which is not the same thing at all
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
I mean, try plotting, say, Brazil, Zambia, and the Northern Territory in Australia. They're wildly dissimilar, but at very similar latitudes. Or Lithuania vs Ontario vs Kazakhstan vs northern China
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @GidMK
There’s a regionality factor because seasonality is based partly on humidity and temperature and these two can vary a lot for the same latitude even on the same continent. That’s why you can’t compare Oregon and NY, but big clusters of states at same latitude are matching
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Martin Brodeur Retweeted Martin Brodeur
Martin Brodeur added,
Martin Brodeur @martbrod1/4 Seasonality is amazing natural phenomenon! 4 regions of the United States that follow the same curve based mainly on latitude. #1 is the most southern states where it's mainly over for now, notice the small bump last summer (as predicted by Hope-Simpson for north tropical) pic.twitter.com/WdPOI1bzBCShow this thread1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @martbrod
Here's a fun activity - I can think of at least a dozen reasons that states which border each other might have visually similar numbers when plotted on the same graph that have nothing to do with seasons. Can you name 5 of them?
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @GidMK
Seasonality =/= seasons It’s more about the fact that climate follows patterns that are modulated by seasons. The spring curve was only observed in north-east and the summer hump only in the south. My fun activity I propose: let’s see in July if the same hump appears in the south
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @martbrod
Cool cool, so you can't think of any other explanations? Because many of them are really quite simple
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @GidMK
And exclude climate? I would say local travelling within the given region, regional social behaviour patterns, immunity induced by previous regional outbreaks of other viruses, proportion if ethnic groups with different immunity
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
Right, so you'd agree that seasonality is one potential explanation among literally dozens for why those lines might appear somewhat similar when you graph them together?
-
Show additional replies, including those that may contain offensive content
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.