Great piece. People also have a gut feeling for some things. For example, when experts use population risk as a measure of individual risk, people smell something wrong. It's exactly why, paradoxically, I think they enter lotteries. 1/n
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Nobody lives in a 'population', it's a statistical construct. For an individual, the risk of something (where causal factors are unknown, as with clots) is 50-50. You either get it, or not. 2/n
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