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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 26

      17/n But if we go to the pre-registration for the study (which, incidentally, doesn't talk about controlling for a clustered design), there's something a bit weird The primary outcome was originally "acute respiratory illness"pic.twitter.com/00efREicTD

      1 reply 1 retweet 29 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 26

      18/n So when the study was registered, in June 2020, the primary outcome was acute illness. A month after the final results came in, the primary outcome was changed to laboratory-confirmed COVID-19pic.twitter.com/bvnQFLBIc3

      2 replies 3 retweets 30 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 26

      19/n Moreover, the outcome that was registered in advance as the primary outcome has completely different results, showing a statistically significant effect for ivermectin but nothing elsepic.twitter.com/9uEHLguDRc

      1 reply 3 retweets 34 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 26

      20/n Now, there's nothing inherently wrong about switching outcomes, and the authors do mention a reason for changing it, but the fact that it was only changed after the study was finished is very strangepic.twitter.com/2S6fIGLb9G

      2 replies 1 retweet 31 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 26

      21/n The explanation in the text also doesn't quite make sense. The paper reports excluding people who had a positive serological test at baseline - how can these people have been tested if there were no serological tests when the study started?pic.twitter.com/I561MZ8JsA

      1 reply 1 retweet 28 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 26

      22/n So what does this all mean? Well, overall, it's quite hard to trust the trial's results

      1 reply 1 retweet 30 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 26

      23/n The study does not appear to follow the guidelines for implementation and analysis for cluster RCTs, which means that it's hard to know what to make of the analysishttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5881078/ …

      1 reply 1 retweet 34 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 26

      24/n The primary outcome was also switched, with a bunch of other odd inconsistencies in the research that make it a bit hard to know if the conclusions hold water

      1 reply 0 retweets 25 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 26

      25/n To their credit, the authors talk about some of these things in the limitations section of the study, but not all of them and I'm not sure they really explain why these are not issuespic.twitter.com/KaUEJBj2ki

      1 reply 0 retweets 32 likes
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 26

      26/n Anyway, I'm not sure I would rely on this study as evidence for much, despite the large size

      3 replies 0 retweets 31 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 26

      Health Nerd Retweeted Jason Kerwin

      27/n Apologies, one of the above tweets is wrong. The authors did indeed take into account the clustering in their statistical analysishttps://twitter.com/jt_kerwin/status/1386920483916947464?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Jason Kerwin @jt_kerwin
      Replying to @GidMK
      They do in fact analyze the data correctly, accounting for the clustered design: pic.twitter.com/gx0VbHjQ5p
      10:53 PM - 26 Apr 2021
      • 2 Retweets
      • 34 Likes
      • Nicolas Jacob Amiel Villanueva Harry Hong Doremi Cleber Tumoli Seidi Pedro Octávio, O Wishiful Thinking™ THEmonio A Dad who enjoys nerdy things
      2 replies 2 retweets 34 likes
        1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 26

          Health Nerd Retweeted Saloni

          28/n The more I read this paper, the weirder it sounds. So they randomized ineligible people (how?) from two floors that were not clustered, and then assigned them to vitamin C if the other medications were contraindicated?https://twitter.com/salonium/status/1386922872317247489?s=20 …

          Health Nerd added,

          Saloni @salonium
          Replying to @GidMK
          They sort of explain it here but it's pretty strange. They seem to be from the extra 2 floors, and only excluded from the primary analysis pic.twitter.com/aOpbBPNdxH
          2 replies 0 retweets 26 likes
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        1. marsouin‏ @marsouin4 Apr 27
          Replying to @GidMK

          So? How does it change the confidence in this study? Better of how much?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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