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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 25

    Health Nerd Retweeted Patrick Phillips MD

    I'm a big fan of reporting both absolute and relative risk. That being said, this is wildly wronghttps://twitter.com/DrP_MD/status/1385919719631474691 …

    Health Nerd added,

    Patrick Phillips MD @DrP_MD
    The absolute risk benefit of mRNA vaccines is minuscule: Unreported absolute risk reduction measures of 0.7% and 1.1% for the Pfzier/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, respectively, are very much lower than the reported relative risk reduction measures. https://www.mdpi.com/1648-9144/57/3/199/htm …
    Show this thread
    1:58 AM - 25 Apr 2021
    • 11 Retweets
    • 86 Likes
    • Johannes Richter Matthew Fox Brandon Scott Sparks, MD Wil S. Jon Planck Epoch 6_or_11 Nymisha Lekha
    7 replies 11 retweets 86 likes
      1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 25

        As a basic explanation of why it's ridiculous, think of the population risk of catching COVID-19 in the study period (~2 months) vs the timeline of a pandemic (15 months so far)

        3 replies 2 retweets 56 likes
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      2. Saul Justin “AZ  💉 💉 🔥 😷” Newman (he/him)  🏳️‍🌈‏ @saul_newman Apr 25
        Replying to @GidMK

        These calcs ignore obvious *non-personal risks. Avoiding vax. is like refusing to walk up some slippery stairs to turn on the sprinklers in a burning building. There’s a ~1/50 chance I kill anyone I infect, ~1/100k chance I’m hurt. 😷+💉=🤏risk to me, huge gain to others

        1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
      3. Suzanne aka Susan (MPH, MS, RD)‏ @NoNutritionFear Apr 25
        Replying to @saul_newman @GidMK

        But that assumes people care about others. When you're in it for yourself, rationality goes out the window. Plus, humans are notoriously bad at risk assessment...in truth, you're prob more likely to die in a car accident en route to vaccination than have serious vaccine reaction.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. Liz Morris  🍊‏ @wayofthemarmot Apr 25
        Replying to @GidMK

        An ‘Ivermectin & vitamin D is the answer’ type misrepresenting vaccine data? I’m SHOCKED.

        0 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
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      2. Julio C. Ponce‏Verified account @jasonptodd Apr 25
        Replying to @GidMK

        Well, in countries experiencing nationwide surges (Brazil and India) even a 1.1% risk reduction would save an awful lot of lives. (I imagine in those places the risk of getting the disease is also increased many fold)

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. Suzanne aka Susan (MPH, MS, RD)‏ @NoNutritionFear Apr 25
        Replying to @jasonptodd @GidMK

        Also, I think people don't understand the difference between efficacy and effectiveness. They also don't understand that background rates of infection will have an important impact on ultimate effectiveness, lives saved, baseline risk of getting exposed, and more.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Dr Paul Mackey‏ @auscandoc Apr 26
        Replying to @GidMK

        Oh I see you’ve already stumbled across my unethical colleague. 😔

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Will Lau‏ @WillWLau Apr 26
        Replying to @GidMK

        One big thing I've taken away from this past year is that theres a way larger variance in the qualities and abilities of medical doctors than I thought possible. I guess someone has to graduate at the bottom of the class...

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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