As a basic explanation of why it's ridiculous, think of the population risk of catching COVID-19 in the study period (~2 months) vs the timeline of a pandemic (15 months so far)
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These calcs ignore obvious *non-personal risks. Avoiding vax. is like refusing to walk up some slippery stairs to turn on the sprinklers in a burning building. There’s a ~1/50 chance I kill anyone I infect, ~1/100k chance I’m hurt.
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risk to me, huge gain to others -
But that assumes people care about others. When you're in it for yourself, rationality goes out the window. Plus, humans are notoriously bad at risk assessment...in truth, you're prob more likely to die in a car accident en route to vaccination than have serious vaccine reaction.
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An ‘Ivermectin & vitamin D is the answer’ type misrepresenting vaccine data? I’m SHOCKED.
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Well, in countries experiencing nationwide surges (Brazil and India) even a 1.1% risk reduction would save an awful lot of lives. (I imagine in those places the risk of getting the disease is also increased many fold)
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Also, I think people don't understand the difference between efficacy and effectiveness. They also don't understand that background rates of infection will have an important impact on ultimate effectiveness, lives saved, baseline risk of getting exposed, and more.
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Oh I see you’ve already stumbled across my unethical colleague.
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One big thing I've taken away from this past year is that theres a way larger variance in the qualities and abilities of medical doctors than I thought possible. I guess someone has to graduate at the bottom of the class...
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