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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Murad Banaji‏ @muradbanaji Apr 23

      There isn't much good news coming out of India. Here's some: Mumbai's data is showing what looks like vaccines reducing fatalities. First bit of data: the fraction of deaths amongst the over-60s in Mumbai has been steadily dropping. Let's explore a bit. (1/7)pic.twitter.com/jPQHfqEPz9

      39 replies 533 retweets 1,431 likes
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    2. Murad Banaji‏ @muradbanaji Apr 23

      The effect is now very significant. Deaths in the over-60s this week are around 40% less than expected based on trends upto late March and deaths in under-60s. Also, the timing is about right: vax starts for the over-60s on March 1 - first hints of an effect by April 8.pic.twitter.com/4xh2bqE2OS

      5 replies 55 retweets 254 likes
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    3. Murad Banaji‏ @muradbanaji Apr 23

      In theory the shift could reflect: - more recorded fatalities amongst younger people - fewer recorded fatalities amongst older people - some mixture of the two. Which is it? Could more young people be getting severe disease for some reason?

      3 replies 28 retweets 134 likes
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    4. Murad Banaji‏ @muradbanaji Apr 23

      You could get more young people with severe disease because of wider spread in the slums. Or some unknown property of a new variant. But: during April, delayed CFR (delay of 18 days) has been falling: fatalities today are ~30% *fewer* than we expect from cases 18 days ago.pic.twitter.com/CXUu2pbyQ6

      5 replies 28 retweets 123 likes
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    5. Murad Banaji‏ @muradbanaji Apr 23

      The fall in delayed CFR has occurred without much fall in test positivity - it seems like a genuine drop in fatality rate. So: the age-shift seems to be more about fewer fatalities amongst older people, and less about more fatalities amongst younger people.

      1 reply 27 retweets 122 likes
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    6. Murad Banaji‏ @muradbanaji Apr 23

      Could deaths amongst older people be going uncounted? Again, it is possible. Ultimately, we can't be completely sure that the relative drop in deaths amongst the elderly is a vaccine effect. But we can be hopeful and keep looking at the data.

      5 replies 20 retweets 102 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 24
      Replying to @muradbanaji

      I think that deaths among older groups are likely to be undercounted BUT I can't see how this would have changed in the time-scale of the vaccine rollout so I can't see how this would explain the reduction associated with vaccines

      5:44 AM - 24 Apr 2021
      • 4 Likes
      • Jessica Pickett Elena Leo Costa Sunil S
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Murad Banaji‏ @muradbanaji Apr 24
          Replying to @GidMK

          Yes, I don't think undercounting is the main explanation. But the argument would be: as the surge accelerated in the city, the chances of an ill, elderly person getting tested - and if they died it being classified as a COVID death - declined more than for a young person.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Hemant Deepak‏ @HShewade Apr 24
          Replying to @muradbanaji @GidMK

          +1

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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