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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 22

      Health Nerd Retweeted Norman Swan

      I don't agree with this framing tbh. Even if we were to have hermetically sealed rooms, the risk of an outbreak from hotel quarantine will never be zero The only way out long-term is vaccination #auspolhttps://twitter.com/normanswan/status/1385395293026340868 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Norman SwanVerified account @normanswan
      Yet another failure of hotel quarantine. It’s no mystery. Airborne spread can occur because the rooms aren’t designed for negative pressure. And now a flight from Perth and days of possible transmission. We are vulnerable. Need cabin accommodation. 1/2
      14 replies 12 retweets 77 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Dr Zoë Hyde‏ @DrZoeHyde Apr 22
      Replying to @GidMK

      I have to disagree with you on this one. It's true we can't reduce risk to zero, but we can get it a lot closer to zero than it is now. It's estimated 1 in 200 hotel quarantine cases are leading to community cases now - too much - and it'll only increase as the pandemic worsens.

      2 replies 6 retweets 39 likes
    3. Dr Zoë Hyde‏ @DrZoeHyde Apr 22
      Replying to @DrZoeHyde @GidMK

      I do agree that we could be doing far more with vaccination. However, there's plenty of low-hanging fruit with regard to preventing airborne transmission that we're foolishly ignoring.

      3 replies 3 retweets 14 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 22
      Replying to @DrZoeHyde

      But my point is that we won't be able to rest easy about hotel outbreaks until there is community immunity, which means for practical purposes we have to have a similar position even if we reduce the risk of outbreaks from quarantine

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Dan Babs‏ @DanDbab Apr 22
      Replying to @GidMK @DrZoeHyde

      We won't be in a similar position though if we reduce outbreak frequency - there's other costs to them aside from the public health risks. Dealing with them isn't free. Reducing the frequency of those costs is a legitimate difference. What am I missing?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 22
      Replying to @DanDbab @DrZoeHyde

      Given a low population immunity, even a low risk of an outbreak means we have to maintain a similar readiness, because the results of an outbreak are similar. So reducing the risk from 0.5% to 0.05% doesn't mean we can relax our response

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Dan Babs‏ @DanDbab Apr 22
      Replying to @GidMK @DrZoeHyde

      Thanks for the reply, I wasn't missing that though. In terms of an ultimate strategy I understand that HQ is never going to be a substitute for pop. immunity, and never going to allow us to let our guard down, but I don't think that's the only consideration. 1/

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Dan Babs‏ @DanDbab Apr 22
      Replying to @DanDbab @GidMK @DrZoeHyde

      If the costs of outbreaks are greater than the costs of preventing them, it seems pretty obvious to me to view better prevention as a very real improvement. Regardless of to what extent it allows us to relax public health wise. 2/2

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Dr Daya Sharma  😷 🥽 💨 🧼 💉 💉‏ @DrDayaSharma Apr 22
      Replying to @DanDbab @GidMK @DrZoeHyde

      Yes. Also, there is a lot of uncertainty with regards to new variants and vaccine escape. We should make all these variants stop in quarantine. That's what it's there for.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 22
      Replying to @DrDayaSharma @DanDbab @DrZoeHyde

      My point is that even in a very good system we will still see HQ escape (if more rarely). I'm not saying it's not a good investment to improve HQ, but that our ultimate strategy cannot rely on it forever

      9:08 PM - 22 Apr 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Romy G
      4 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Dr David Berger, Absurdist Chronicler‏ @YouAreLobbyLud Apr 22
          Replying to @GidMK @DrDayaSharma and

          It can never be zero but it can be an order of magnitude lower than it is now. Air gapped quarantine, suitable attention to airborne protections and ventilation at all stages from on board aircraft to quarantine accommidation itself. #NotRocketScience

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. Dan Babs‏ @DanDbab Apr 22
          Replying to @GidMK @DrDayaSharma @DrZoeHyde

          If that is your point tbh I don't see how you do disagree with Dr Swan's framing - I don't think he was suggesting it should be improved so we can rely on it forever. 1/

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Dan Babs‏ @DanDbab Apr 22
          Replying to @DanDbab @GidMK and

          Maybe we're interpreting his use of the word 'vulnerable' differently - I'm assuming he's saying we're vulnerable and that's why HQ matters, but I guess another interpretation is him saying we're vulnerable *because* HQ is below par. In which case yes, not really. 2/2

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Tom Johnstone BunurongCountry AU EU UK‏ @itjohnstone Apr 22
          Replying to @GidMK @DrDayaSharma and

          I don't think anyone is suggesting that we rely on it forever. Both building dedicated quarantine facilities and ensuring early and quick vaccine supply are things that should have been done and haven't. As the saying goes, the second best time to do both is now.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Dr Daya Sharma  😷 🥽 💨 🧼 💉 💉‏ @DrDayaSharma Apr 22
          Replying to @itjohnstone @GidMK and

          Yes. @MarylouiseMcla1 suggested dedicated quarantine facilities many months ago, & a lot of people said it was too expensive or not needed. Since then multiple outbreaks have cost our economy billions.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Dr Daya Sharma  😷 🥽 💨 🧼 💉 💉‏ @DrDayaSharma Apr 22
          Replying to @GidMK @DanDbab @DrZoeHyde

          Yes, but a factor of at least 10x reduction in risk is probably achievable if we wanted to. It has massive implications for confidence eg many people would not book flights if 4 crashes happened in every 1-2 weeks.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Dr Daya Sharma  😷 🥽 💨 🧼 💉 💉‏ @DrDayaSharma Apr 23
          Replying to @DrDayaSharma @GidMK and

          @GidMK IMHO we have to look at the social & economic imperatives with quarantine & repatriation. Simplistically, if you can reduce quarantine breach risks by a factor of 10, then you could repatriate 10X more people without a breach cc @chrisedmond @SHamiltonian @profholden 1/

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies

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