What's the IFR in India?
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Replying to @mikejohansenmd
We are working on estimates at the moment and it's incredibly difficult to say. The seroprevalence data only covers a few areas, and the mortality data is really problematic
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Replying to @GidMK @mikejohansenmd
There's no conceivable way you'd develop this estimate in real time, for the reasons you mention + asking IFR in India is like asking what the IFR in the whole of Europe. If you take some standard age-wise estimates developed very early on e.g. Ferguson et Al and apply it to...
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Replying to @ritwik_priya @mikejohansenmd
Absolutely, we're working with some of the researchers who have estimated IFR in India using seroprevalence in the past, and trying to get as granular as possible with the estimates (+stratifying by age)
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And then comparing to our estimates for IFR in our EJE paper. It's very complex because there are some regions where deaths may not be undercounted by much, but there are others where deaths are almost certainly missed to a huge extent
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Replying to @GidMK @ritwik_priya
It is also an interesting question b/c re-infections could have a different IFR (same as vaccinated folks). The idea that there is AN IFR is looking increasing suspect.
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Replying to @mikejohansenmd @ritwik_priya
Definitely true! We are also trying to incorporate the idea that overwhelmed systems may themselves increase the IFR
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Replying to @GidMK @ritwik_priya
It increase the fatality rate of everything.
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Why this obsession? What’s the utility of an IFR? (Serious question)
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I don't think there is much value. How does it change how we act? How does it change our perception of the current reality? IFR for something like covid, that increasingly appears to have no near term herd immunity through acquired infection, doesn't really make sense.
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Tbh, as someone who's been researching IFR now for most of the last 12 months, I'm not sure how much utility it's ever had beyond somewhat meaningless arguments about how dangerous COVID-19 is
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Replying to @GidMK @mikejohansenmd and
It's a useful measure to calculate possible overall death rates if left unmitigated.
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Replying to @MichaelPaulEdw1 @GidMK and
IMO, Hospitalization Rate (IHR) and CFR should be far more useful indicators and less biased ( in terms of statistical source). Does this make sense?
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End of conversation
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