Your possibilities 1 and 2 are both reinfections. If they were happening at large scale we would all know about it. It’s not a reasonable theory
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Replying to @TheEliKlein
The difference is reinfection with variants or reinfection with initial strains. These would have very different implications. I think possibility 3 is possible, but I've talked to the researchers who did the serology studies in India and I'm not certain it's right
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Replying to @GidMK
Lower seroprevalence, high HIT needed makes a lot of sense. Your possibles 1 and 2 just aren’t reasonable. In this thread you conclude that “If explanation 2 is true, then herd immunity through natural infection may be entirely impossible” which is just such weird doom stuff...
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Replying to @TheEliKlein
It does make a lot of sense, and I've been saying that seroprevalence studies often over-estimate infections for a long time based on my own work. And that statement is entirely factual, if reinfection through variants is common and severe within a 12-month cycle...
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Replying to @GidMK
But there’s just no evidence of that. You’re speculating on something unlikely. Surely you know that a lot of people follow you, many may take this out of context. I suggest turning to Covid immunity optimism—it’s been consistent and doesn’t harm society like immunity denying
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Replying to @TheEliKlein
Sorry, immunity denying? I honestly don't know the answer (which I make VERY clear in the thread), but I think that the explanation is less unlikely than I used to. Partially this is after talking to the researchers who did the Indian serosurveys
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Replying to @GidMK @TheEliKlein
It's also worth noting that explanation 3 is in some ways worse for the herd immunity by natural infection argument because it means that the disease is rather more severe than many serosurveys implied, and that the herd immunity threshold is well above the low modeled estimates
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Replying to @TheEliKlein
I wish I could be as certain of these incredibly challenging issues as you
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Replying to @GidMK
Yeah I’m dismissing your unfounded doomer conspiracy theories about reinfections driving Covid surges making natural herd immunity impossible. As I wrote earlier, this always debunked immunity denying has killed 1000s of people. Enough already, this rhetoric does real damage
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Lol. You can't just dismiss things you dislike as conspiracy theories, that's politics not science. You've presented 0 evidence and at this point I'm not even sure you've even understood what I'm saying at all
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