This is an absolutely terrifying article "there is a shortage of everything — oxygen, drugs, beds, vaccines, even cremation space"https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/indias-health-system-has-collapsed-101618558934636.html …
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Replying to @GidMK
Your possibilities 1 and 2 are both reinfections. If they were happening at large scale we would all know about it. It’s not a reasonable theory
3 replies 1 retweet 17 likes -
Replying to @TheEliKlein
The difference is reinfection with variants or reinfection with initial strains. These would have very different implications. I think possibility 3 is possible, but I've talked to the researchers who did the serology studies in India and I'm not certain it's right
4 replies 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @GidMK
Lower seroprevalence, high HIT needed makes a lot of sense. Your possibles 1 and 2 just aren’t reasonable. In this thread you conclude that “If explanation 2 is true, then herd immunity through natural infection may be entirely impossible” which is just such weird doom stuff...
1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes -
Replying to @TheEliKlein
It does make a lot of sense, and I've been saying that seroprevalence studies often over-estimate infections for a long time based on my own work. And that statement is entirely factual, if reinfection through variants is common and severe within a 12-month cycle...
2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
...then we would expect to have a (somewhat) similar disease pattern to influenza, with regular severe yearly outbreaks. While this would of course represent herd effects to some extent, it makes the idea of herd immunity as it is commonly used very unlikely
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