This is an absolutely terrifying article "there is a shortage of everything — oxygen, drugs, beds, vaccines, even cremation space"https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/indias-health-system-has-collapsed-101618558934636.html …
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Has anyone figured out what magic is happening in Japan? Because the lack of a major outbreak is perplexing.
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Same magic as all the other places that have avoided major outbreaks. Strong policies
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The biggest concerns I’ve seen with the high seroprevalence numbers out of developing countries center around upward biases in the tests themselves. Do you think that’s possible in India?
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Yes, definitely
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I can point to at least some analysis that is likely flawedhttps://twitter.com/Marco_Piani/status/1383820152718823427?s=20 …
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Heterogeneity probably explains much of it, but it may simply be that the prevalence threshold for overwhelming healthcare is quite low and that can be reached multiple times through progressive waves
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Fully agree. There are many sources of bias in the seroprevalence surveys. But, when you look across the major cities reporting high seroprev last year - esp., Mumbai, Pune, Nagpur & Delhi - and note how all are seeing *massive & rapid* surges now, it points at 1 & 2.
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The 2020 sero studies could well have been overestimates because of this? https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.03.20145797v1 … And https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7128937/ … ; Would like to get your thoughts.
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Could be a combination of waning immunity and more infectious variants raising the HIT?
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