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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 18

      This is an absolutely terrifying article "there is a shortage of everything — oxygen, drugs, beds, vaccines, even cremation space"https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/indias-health-system-has-collapsed-101618558934636.html …

      39 replies 368 retweets 787 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 18

      Many places in India had very large initial epidemics, and it has been proposed that some cities (i.e. Mumbai) might have been at or near herd immunity towards the end of last year

      2 replies 5 retweets 71 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 18

      The new massive waves even in areas with many infections before raise several possibilities, none of them great 1. reinfections 2. variants 3. large over-ascertainment of past infection

      6 replies 11 retweets 91 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 18

      Reinfections without variants are quite unlikely to be driving this, based on past evidence. So either we dramatically over-estimated how many people had been infected in the past (possible, not that likely) or there are numerous reinfections due to variants

      3 replies 10 retweets 91 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 18

      Unless there's another explanation? I really don't see how else you could get a second massive wave in a place that reportedly had 40-60% of the population infected in pretty well-done serology studies last year

      9 replies 6 retweets 96 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 18

      If explanation 3 is true, then it means that even in really hard-hit areas we are probably far away from any herd immunity threshold long-term If explanation 2 is true, then herd immunity through natural infection may be entirely impossible 😬

      8 replies 11 retweets 97 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 18

      In terms of explanation 3, I think it is entirely possible but I have talked to the researchers who conducted seroprevalence studies in India and they are some of the better ones I've seen in the developing world

      2 replies 1 retweet 44 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 18

      There are still many sources of bias, and it's entirely possible that they over-estimate seroprevalence, but I'm not sure it is the most likely explanation any more

      8:31 PM - 18 Apr 2021
      • 2 Retweets
      • 45 Likes
      • old9uy JP DEFUND MPD Yoreme der_flo Name can’t be blank Holly Quick Daniella Modos - Cutter #SafeEdForAll -SEN 💙🐝🐝 Gabriela Stadler
      6 replies 2 retweets 45 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Twiddled Words‏ @shitshoken Apr 18
          Replying to @GidMK

          Has anyone figured out what magic is happening in Japan? Because the lack of a major outbreak is perplexing.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. kenlipartito‏ @kenlipartito Apr 18
          Replying to @shitshoken @GidMK

          Same magic as all the other places that have avoided major outbreaks. Strong policies

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Jason Kerwin‏ @jt_kerwin Apr 18
          Replying to @GidMK

          The biggest concerns I’ve seen with the high seroprevalence numbers out of developing countries center around upward biases in the tests themselves. Do you think that’s possible in India?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 18
          Replying to @jt_kerwin

          Yes, definitely

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani Apr 18
          Replying to @GidMK

          Marco Piani Retweeted Marco Piani

          I can point to at least some analysis that is likely flawedhttps://twitter.com/Marco_Piani/status/1383820152718823427?s=20 …

          Marco Piani added,

          Marco Piani @Marco_Piani
          This is really hard: Whom to listen to when deciding whether to consider the situation in India as concerning: @MaxCRoser or @FatEmperor , both looking at @OurWorldInData graphs? /sarcasm pic.twitter.com/IhChqbE68S
          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Pieter Peach‏ @DrPieterPeach Apr 18
          Replying to @GidMK

          Heterogeneity probably explains much of it, but it may simply be that the prevalence threshold for overwhelming healthcare is quite low and that can be reached multiple times through progressive waves

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Murad Banaji‏ @muradbanaji Apr 18
          Replying to @GidMK

          Fully agree. There are many sources of bias in the seroprevalence surveys. But, when you look across the major cities reporting high seroprev last year - esp., Mumbai, Pune, Nagpur & Delhi - and note how all are seeing *massive & rapid* surges now, it points at 1 & 2.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Avtansh Agarwal‏ @avtansh Apr 20
          Replying to @muradbanaji @GidMK

          The 2020 sero studies could well have been overestimates because of this? https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.03.20145797v1 … And https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7128937/ … ; Would like to get your thoughts.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Tim Kelly‏ @TimKell91827640 Apr 19
          Replying to @GidMK

          Could be a combination of waning immunity and more infectious variants raising the HIT?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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