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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 18

      This is an absolutely terrifying article "there is a shortage of everything — oxygen, drugs, beds, vaccines, even cremation space"https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/indias-health-system-has-collapsed-101618558934636.html …

      39 replies 368 retweets 787 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 18

      Many places in India had very large initial epidemics, and it has been proposed that some cities (i.e. Mumbai) might have been at or near herd immunity towards the end of last year

      2 replies 5 retweets 71 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 18

      The new massive waves even in areas with many infections before raise several possibilities, none of them great 1. reinfections 2. variants 3. large over-ascertainment of past infection

      6 replies 11 retweets 91 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 18

      Reinfections without variants are quite unlikely to be driving this, based on past evidence. So either we dramatically over-estimated how many people had been infected in the past (possible, not that likely) or there are numerous reinfections due to variants

      3 replies 10 retweets 91 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 18

      Unless there's another explanation? I really don't see how else you could get a second massive wave in a place that reportedly had 40-60% of the population infected in pretty well-done serology studies last year

      9 replies 6 retweets 96 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 18

      If explanation 3 is true, then it means that even in really hard-hit areas we are probably far away from any herd immunity threshold long-term If explanation 2 is true, then herd immunity through natural infection may be entirely impossible 😬

      8:14 PM - 18 Apr 2021
      • 11 Retweets
      • 97 Likes
      • Geoff Hurst Tutkija Tutkersson Bjørn JP DEFUND MPD PSBlaw Yoreme der_flo Lord Blood
      8 replies 11 retweets 97 likes
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        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 18

          In terms of explanation 3, I think it is entirely possible but I have talked to the researchers who conducted seroprevalence studies in India and they are some of the better ones I've seen in the developing world

          2 replies 1 retweet 44 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 18

          There are still many sources of bias, and it's entirely possible that they over-estimate seroprevalence, but I'm not sure it is the most likely explanation any more

          6 replies 2 retweets 45 likes
          Show this thread
        4. End of conversation
        1. Farid Matuk‏ @matuk Apr 18
          Replying to @GidMK

          I'm from Peru where first wave was massive an put as #1 in excess mortality, and now again we are #1 in the second wave. The most feasible explanation is variants. since survivors from first wave and back in square zero.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. País que matas‏ @noregistraos Apr 18
          Replying to @GidMK

          Manaos, Barranquilla. Local examples

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Sonal Asthana, MD‏ @sonalasthana Apr 18
          Replying to @GidMK

          That's the most likely explanation. Immunity achieved through vaccines may be more durable. India is vaccinating fast. It needs to be faster.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Sonal Asthana, MD‏ @sonalasthana Apr 18
          Replying to @sonalasthana @GidMK

          Similar opinions.https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/coronavirus-vaccine-most-affected-areas-herd-immunity-7238836/lite/?__twitter_impression=true …

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. JH // from fairest tweeps we desire increase‏ @jhan2qt Apr 18
          Replying to @GidMK

          all 3 options are not mutually exclusive. Also don't forget births and aging.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Deepak Sonani‏ @leaferfan90 Apr 18
          Replying to @GidMK

          Anecdotal evidence but from the dozens of people I know +ve right now in India, none were infected in the first wave (symptomatically atleast). Headed towards herd immunity. Paying a terrible price to get there, but population's stubbornness to not learn leaves no alternative.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Jim‏ @jimatdisney Apr 19
          Replying to @GidMK

          Is anyone researching explanation 2? One could look at it in the US - how many reinfections, and how many of the reinfections are which variants. Is there any news in India of reinfections?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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