This is an absolutely terrifying article "there is a shortage of everything — oxygen, drugs, beds, vaccines, even cremation space"https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/indias-health-system-has-collapsed-101618558934636.html …
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In terms of explanation 3, I think it is entirely possible but I have talked to the researchers who conducted seroprevalence studies in India and they are some of the better ones I've seen in the developing world
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There are still many sources of bias, and it's entirely possible that they over-estimate seroprevalence, but I'm not sure it is the most likely explanation any more
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I'm from Peru where first wave was massive an put as #1 in excess mortality, and now again we are #1 in the second wave. The most feasible explanation is variants. since survivors from first wave and back in square zero.
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Manaos, Barranquilla. Local examples
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That's the most likely explanation. Immunity achieved through vaccines may be more durable. India is vaccinating fast. It needs to be faster.
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all 3 options are not mutually exclusive. Also don't forget births and aging.
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Anecdotal evidence but from the dozens of people I know +ve right now in India, none were infected in the first wave (symptomatically atleast). Headed towards herd immunity. Paying a terrible price to get there, but population's stubbornness to not learn leaves no alternative.
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Is anyone researching explanation 2? One could look at it in the US - how many reinfections, and how many of the reinfections are which variants. Is there any news in India of reinfections?
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