This is an absolutely terrifying article "there is a shortage of everything — oxygen, drugs, beds, vaccines, even cremation space"https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/indias-health-system-has-collapsed-101618558934636.html …
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If explanation 3 is true, then it means that even in really hard-hit areas we are probably far away from any herd immunity threshold long-term If explanation 2 is true, then herd immunity through natural infection may be entirely impossible
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In terms of explanation 3, I think it is entirely possible but I have talked to the researchers who conducted seroprevalence studies in India and they are some of the better ones I've seen in the developing world
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There are still many sources of bias, and it's entirely possible that they over-estimate seroprevalence, but I'm not sure it is the most likely explanation any more
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I would be the house on: 3. large over-ascertainment of past infection I can't find the article right this minute, but there were systematic problems with India's serosurveys.
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Please do let me know further thoughts on this ... as far as I could tell, the Murhekar et al. and Sharma et al. studies seemed to have some pretty credible estimates. Something I missed?
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I bet Ioannidis will have a really good answer soon. Not.pic.twitter.com/5wGqjuSFzt
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At least according to this article, “some small very localised clusters in Delhi, Mumbai and Pune showing more than 50 per cent seropositivity received far greater prominence, and were used to explain why the numbers were falling”:https://indianexpress.com/article/india/coronavirus-second-wave-coming-serosurveys-had-raised-red-flags-but-little-else-7279464/ …
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Also from the same article: “The December serosurvey, whose results were announced in early February, for example, showed that barely 20 per cent of India’s population had been infected by then.”
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Denmark estimates about 20% of immunity is lost within 6 months. 60% seroprevalence becomes 50% immunity. Couple that with more transmissible variants that push the HIT towards 80%.
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R0 close to 6 ( estimate by LANL during the unmitigated spread in China and by others for the 1st European surges) + loss of immunity + variants
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