This is an absolutely terrifying article "there is a shortage of everything — oxygen, drugs, beds, vaccines, even cremation space"https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/indias-health-system-has-collapsed-101618558934636.html …
-
-
Reinfections without variants are quite unlikely to be driving this, based on past evidence. So either we dramatically over-estimated how many people had been infected in the past (possible, not that likely) or there are numerous reinfections due to variants
Show this thread -
Unless there's another explanation? I really don't see how else you could get a second massive wave in a place that reportedly had 40-60% of the population infected in pretty well-done serology studies last year
Show this thread -
If explanation 3 is true, then it means that even in really hard-hit areas we are probably far away from any herd immunity threshold long-term If explanation 2 is true, then herd immunity through natural infection may be entirely impossible
Show this thread -
In terms of explanation 3, I think it is entirely possible but I have talked to the researchers who conducted seroprevalence studies in India and they are some of the better ones I've seen in the developing world
Show this thread -
There are still many sources of bias, and it's entirely possible that they over-estimate seroprevalence, but I'm not sure it is the most likely explanation any more
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
Show additional replies, including those that may contain offensive content
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.