Unpopular opinion, but Bayes theorem *is* obscure, at least to the public. I use it in my job, but the first time I'd heard the term in more than a passing fashion was in a postgraduate degreehttps://twitter.com/TomChivers/status/1383874981763829761 …
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What's awkward is describing something so central in its field as obscure, even if most people are not familiar with the field. Is E=mc2 "obscure"?
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The equation itself is famous but I'm willing to bet that many people don't know what it represents or what the symbols mean
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I learned about it in high school and promptly forgot about it two months later lol
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I have no problem with the "this looks complicated" line that
@TomChivers wrote. It *does* look complicated, because the notion is (unavoidably?) ugly. The "obscure theorem governs COVID testing" thing in the headline does bother me, because it's a lazy trope. -
First of all, it's not obscure formula that just happens to be useful, it's the fundamental expression of how we incorporate new information into our assessments. Second, it's so much broader than COVID testing, but the headline makes it seem like a "this one trick" story.
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I thought I learned a variant of it in high school
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other things that are not taught in high school and are widely misunderstood by adults: - medicine - economics - mental health - project management - error culture - healthy relationships - negotiations - agriculture guess this is not a complete list
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I’d add statistics (beyond mean, median and maybe standard deviation).
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It is taught in UK high schools if you do A level maths as a subject:https://alevelmaths.co.uk/statistics/bayes-theorem/ …
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I’m surprised at how confusing the differences between the following quantities seem to be: .75%, 75%, 0.75, 0.0075
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