I’m all for surging vaccines to hotspots so long as we have supply but let’s not pretend that immunity in a month is going to stop a surgepic.twitter.com/92HuHhfqw2
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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I’m all for surging vaccines to hotspots so long as we have supply but let’s not pretend that immunity in a month is going to stop a surgepic.twitter.com/92HuHhfqw2
he’s right I was a bit glib, the curves split around day 10-14 for symptomatic infection (figure in the NEJM Pfizer study). I’m not sure that extends to other important outcomes (incl asx infection) plus in a surge more ppl will have been infected & prescription at time of vaxpic.twitter.com/xcsHGZ1R07
If people can be asymptomatic for up to 14 days after infection, and it would take another 14 days for immunity then I don’t think the 1 month is an unreasonable approximation
Also worth noting that "surging" is poorly defined. If you're vaccinating 1% of the entire pop a day (which is A LOT), you ~might~ double that to 2% which is not quite the instant fix implied
Just the expert I was looking for! Isn’t it the case that once you hit a certain positivity rate in one area then vaccines will do pretty much nothing in any reasonable time and the only solution is physical distancing/stay at home?
Probably depends what we mean by "reasonable" but it's definitely true that vaccines won't immediately reduce case numbers. @nataliexdean is probably a better person for this question tbh
Mostly just that they aren’t a “quick fix” (ie <2 weeks) for a surge like this as some on this app are saying. Important that I should clarify they would still be the long term answer.
Yeh, I don't think it's at all reasonable to say that they'll be a quick fix. Even if you could vaccinate 50% of a population in a month, which is faster than Israel, it would still be weeks before the infection rate substantially decreased
Agreed- in part because there is both such wide spread transmission already and a short incubation period. This is contrast with a disease like hepatitis A, with a several weeks incubation period, ring or exposure based vaccination strategies can readily interrupt transmission
Oh yes absolutely, this is in the context of an accelerating epidemic of COVID-19, definitely does not apply to other diseases!
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