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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Seth Trueger‏Verified account @MDaware Apr 13

      I’m all for surging vaccines to hotspots so long as we have supply but let’s not pretend that immunity in a month is going to stop a surgepic.twitter.com/92HuHhfqw2

      21 replies 18 retweets 250 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Seth Trueger‏Verified account @MDaware Apr 14

      he’s right I was a bit glib, the curves split around day 10-14 for symptomatic infection (figure in the NEJM Pfizer study). I’m not sure that extends to other important outcomes (incl asx infection) plus in a surge more ppl will have been infected & prescription at time of vaxpic.twitter.com/xcsHGZ1R07

      6 replies 2 retweets 16 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Ryan Marino‏Verified account @RyanMarino Apr 14
      Replying to @MDaware

      If people can be asymptomatic for up to 14 days after infection, and it would take another 14 days for immunity then I don’t think the 1 month is an unreasonable approximation

      1 reply 2 retweets 5 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 14
      Replying to @RyanMarino @MDaware

      Also worth noting that "surging" is poorly defined. If you're vaccinating 1% of the entire pop a day (which is A LOT), you ~might~ double that to 2% which is not quite the instant fix implied

      2 replies 2 retweets 7 likes
    5. Ryan Marino‏Verified account @RyanMarino Apr 14
      Replying to @GidMK @MDaware

      Just the expert I was looking for! Isn’t it the case that once you hit a certain positivity rate in one area then vaccines will do pretty much nothing in any reasonable time and the only solution is physical distancing/stay at home?

      3 replies 2 retweets 3 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 14
      Replying to @RyanMarino @MDaware

      Probably depends what we mean by "reasonable" but it's definitely true that vaccines won't immediately reduce case numbers. @nataliexdean is probably a better person for this question tbh

      1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
    7. Ryan Marino‏Verified account @RyanMarino Apr 14
      Replying to @GidMK @MDaware @nataliexdean

      Mostly just that they aren’t a “quick fix” (ie <2 weeks) for a surge like this as some on this app are saying. Important that I should clarify they would still be the long term answer.

      3 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 14
      Replying to @RyanMarino @MDaware @nataliexdean

      Yeh, I don't think it's at all reasonable to say that they'll be a quick fix. Even if you could vaccinate 50% of a population in a month, which is faster than Israel, it would still be weeks before the infection rate substantially decreased

      7:41 PM - 14 Apr 2021
      • 3 Retweets
      • 14 Likes
      • Dee Scott Myers Skeptical Nurse 「 zara 」 CTHsFutureWife🦓aka💜Trina💛 Ann McRae Doctor_David twist Pepe 👨🏾‍🍳🤌 Silvia, MD
      4 replies 3 retweets 14 likes
        1. Ryan Marino‏Verified account @RyanMarino Apr 14
          Replying to @GidMK @MDaware @nataliexdean

          Thank you!

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Patrick Hickey, MD‏Verified account @pwhickey Apr 14
          Replying to @GidMK @RyanMarino and

          Agreed- in part because there is both such wide spread transmission already and a short incubation period. This is contrast with a disease like hepatitis A, with a several weeks incubation period, ring or exposure based vaccination strategies can readily interrupt transmission

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 14
          Replying to @pwhickey @RyanMarino and

          Oh yes absolutely, this is in the context of an accelerating epidemic of COVID-19, definitely does not apply to other diseases!

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 14
          Replying to @GidMK @RyanMarino and

          I mean, we can bicker over the specifics of K-M curves, but even if you double your capacity you're only going to be vaccinating an extra ~1% of the population a day. After 1-2 months, that'll have a big impact, but a week or two in? Not so much

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Chicago Vaccine PMO‏ @VaxPmo Apr 14
          Replying to @GidMK @RyanMarino and

          Exactly—limited impact and *hard* to do. Formidable logistics stand between where we already are and doubling capacity: not realistic to 2x in a few days a footprint that's taken months to build. And even supposing we succeed, likely not a game changer.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Diane Hallinen, MD‏ @hallinen_diane Apr 14
          Replying to @GidMK @RyanMarino and

          Mi never had an enforceable mask mandate, indoor dining and bars have been open for weeks, kids play sports and go to classrooms with no open windows. I've been whining about this for months to my elected reps. We are losing.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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