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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 11

      Fascinating study demonstrating the issues with selection bias in seroprevalence estimates Using a selected sample of participants, the estimated prevalence of past COVID-19 infection doubled (!) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22351-5#Sec2 …pic.twitter.com/pqN5l1SA41

      5 replies 32 retweets 127 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 11

      The study is really interesting. They used an existing representative sample of people aged >30 to estimate the population prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2pic.twitter.com/lKl4qrSkdO

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 11

      They then added a second group. These were people who had not previously signed up to the existing cohort, but were eligiblepic.twitter.com/1YvLwHtX5H

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 11

      In Group 1, 0.97% of people had antibodies to the virus In Group 2, this doubled to 1.94%pic.twitter.com/ov81bnbRkG

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 11

      Even more interesting, this difference did not disappear even when adjusting for age, sex, or reported past symptoms of COVID-19 The only major difference between the groups? Thinking you'd been exposed to COVID-19 in the pastpic.twitter.com/vChuKScITB

      1 reply 3 retweets 20 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 11

      Two take-homes: 1. Selection bias is a big problem 2. Adjusting for demographics and symptoms may not be adequate to correct for this bias

      2 replies 3 retweets 23 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 11

      What this means is that if you recruit people to a seroprevalence study in a biased way (say, by telling them that they can go back to normal life if they get a positive result), you might end up with a massively inflated estimate

      2 replies 0 retweets 20 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 11

      This is important in IFR calculations If we used the representative sample, we get an IFR of ~0.8% Using the biased sample, it's halved to ~0.4% Big difference!

      1 reply 9 retweets 40 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 11

      Thanks @MikeDeeeeeee for pointing out the research

      4:44 PM - 11 Apr 2021
      • 13 Likes
      • Antonio Golfari Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität nilsbils Proud European from Austria🇪🇺🇦🇹 🌏 Michaela Olsen the sailing science shill ⛵️ Atomsk's Sanakan JP Ayrton Nogueira
      5 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Adam W Gaffney‏Verified account @awgaffney Apr 11
          Replying to @GidMK @MikeDeeeeeee

          Anything short of a household serosurvey using standard sampling methodology is unreliable for producing nationally representative estimates, probably. I’m disappointed the US CDC never embarked on such a survey

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 11
          Replying to @awgaffney @MikeDeeeeeee

          I agree! Especially since the CDC literally wrote the book on how to conduct such surveys...

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. David Steadson  🇦🇺 🇸🇪 🇪🇺 🌍‏ @DavidSteadson Apr 11
          Replying to @GidMK @MikeDeeeeeee

          Several of the Swedish prevalence studies are based on testing of a group that booked for the test themselves (and often had to pay). Literally self-selecting... and I wonder whose most interested in is they personally have antibodies or not? This ain't rocket science.

          1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
        3. David Steadson  🇦🇺 🇸🇪 🇪🇺 🌍‏ @DavidSteadson Apr 11
          Replying to @DavidSteadson @GidMK @MikeDeeeeeee

          Nevertheless, it informed Swedish policy. It's why we had herd immunity coming in April last year. Or May. Or maybe June. August perhaps? 🙄

          0 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Monica Thallinger MD PhD‏ @MThallinger Apr 11
          Replying to @GidMK @MikeDeeeeeee

          Thanks for this. I've seen epidemiologist here on twitter claiming seroprevalence studies are "the only truth, and nothing but the truth" when it comes to finding prevalence in population. Especially used in arguments for low infection rates in children. Bias was never an issue

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. Ketofan1000‏ @ketofan1000 Apr 12
          Replying to @GidMK @MikeDeeeeeee

          Perhaps consider sending this to professor Ioannidis ;)

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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