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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Vladimir N. Minin (he/him)‏ @vnminin Mar 28

      Vladimir N. Minin (he/him) Retweeted Vladimir N. Minin (he/him)

      The most common reaction to this tweet was “why to assume such low IFR”? As most pandemic parameters, IFR varies a lot geographically. I (approximately) used OC-specific IFR estimated using OC seroprevalence study: 0.28%. See Supplement 2, Section 3 👇🏼 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-82662-x …https://twitter.com/vnminin/status/1375247442665369601 …

      Vladimir N. Minin (he/him) added,

      Vladimir N. Minin (he/him) @vnminin
      Assuming infection-to-fatality ratio of 0.25%, 5,000 deaths implies we let 2,000,000 people got infected, 62.5% of all Orange County, CA residents very crude math of course... https://twitter.com/AndrewNoymer/status/1375185291200229376 …
      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
    2. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Apr 1
      Replying to @vnminin

      Atomsk's Sanakan Retweeted Atomsk's Sanakan

      https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1377650942116569089 …

      Atomsk's Sanakan added,

      Atomsk's Sanakan @AtomsksSanakan
      Replying to @vnminin
      Re: "Assuming infection-to-fatality ratio of 0.25%" There's a good chance that IFR for Orange County is wrong, due to a bias in its sample frame. That sample frame produced a mathematically impossible IFR in Los Angeles County. https://twitter.com/vnminin/status/1376311019039952896 … https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1377282062135201794 …
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Vladimir N. Minin (he/him)‏ @vnminin Apr 4
      Replying to @AtomsksSanakan

      Just noticed this, @AtomsksSanakan. Thanks for pointing me to your thread. I am curious what @dm_parker thinks about this. Also, great to see that Riverside also did a seroprevalence study. Didn't know this

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Daniel Parker‏ @dm_parker Apr 4
      Replying to @vnminin @AtomsksSanakan

      Can't speak to the LA study (or Riverside one) but if anything, I'd guess that our estimate of seroprevalence could have been an under-estimate, which would then make the IFR even lower. But remember, at that time we had relatively few COVID-19 deaths at that time. 1/n

      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
    5. Daniel Parker‏ @dm_parker Apr 4
      Replying to @dm_parker @vnminin @AtomsksSanakan

      I see a reference to the LA study being impossible since 0.22% of LA pop died from COVID-19, but at what time had 0.22% of the LA pop died from COVID-19? LA did their study even before ours. 2/n

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Daniel Parker‏ @dm_parker Apr 4
      Replying to @dm_parker @vnminin @AtomsksSanakan

      Doesn't mean that I'm supportive of Ionnidis' COVID work, but OC did not see the kind of mortality that other places (New York, etc.) experienced. And importantly, IFR changes quite a bit over time. Our study (and LAs) was very early in our local epidemic 3/n

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. Daniel Parker‏ @dm_parker Apr 4
      Replying to @dm_parker @vnminin @AtomsksSanakan

      My comment about our study potentially being an underestimate is because LRW contacted folks by mobile phone and asked that they bring a QR code (recvd. by email) to the study site. Folks w/out mobile phone or email *might* have even higher seroprev. Just a hunch

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 6
      Replying to @dm_parker @vnminin @AtomsksSanakan

      This question has been plaguing me for ages - I suspect early on in the pandemic (particularly during lockdown) it's really hard to know what impact mobile phone/email usage had, because people were moving in really non-traditional ways

      3:55 PM - 6 Apr 2021
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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