One of the weird things about the pandemic is watching people talk about uncertainty but refuse to admit that it usually runs in both directions
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There are many uncertainties. But if someone only ever expresses uncertainty in a single direction, it's hard to believe that they are simply concerned about what we don't know
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Recommendation for lockdowns is a public health based method to limit spread of disease and get it under control. Failure is usually due to poor implementation and planning like UK and unlike NZ
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Isnt the question which time frame we are talking about? On the short run (months), lockdowns undoubtedly safe lifes. Medium run (years) most likely the benefits outweigh the pot neg consequences, considering long Covid etc, long run (decades) - not sure. Very long run
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When baking in the long term effects of the massive debt incurred by the lockdown, this really isn't much of a debate. And the short term effects of the lockdown on global poverty are jaw dropping, at least for those who value lives in the developed and developing world equally.
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Because if you are an libertarian, anarchist, or similar anti government ideologue, uncertainty in the other direction would be a confession that it is possible for collective action through democratic social institutions to be effective and useful.
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This extends to gadflies like Prasad or Ioannadis or socialist critics: To be a valid gadfly you must take every opportunity to denigrate the "establishment "
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+-150% uncertainty? In medical area seems scientist havw no clue of what represents uncertainty. They just add notes like, our assumptions are.. We believe that... It may result in... Etc. When you evaluate their notes you find some 2000 % uncertainty.. Sic
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