I thought this too, and was identically wrong!https://twitter.com/EpiEllie/status/1378016844087459842 …
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Flu disappeared in Australia too. No masks necessary.
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I wasn't sold on effectiveness, but I was all about masks as something we might as well try.
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And still, it's so hard to find evidence masks do anything. And in NZ/Australia border workers keep getting infected despite masks. Look, in the UK we're dealing with 50% of symptomatic people not isolating, let's not assume masks have a meaningful effect in such a world.
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If we reason in terms of probability distribution, at community level, face masks can really "do a lot"! Then, of course, if you spend a long time, with many people, in a closed environment, without ventilation, the probability they can "do enough" decreases a lot!
End of conversation
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I think the level of political reliance on epidemiology, for a novel virus with relatively unknown properties, was a mistake. Related viruses are common pathogens in pets & livestock, & vets warned early on that this disease was likely to have some nasty tricks up its sleeve.
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