I mean, this whole thread. I think a lot of epis made the same errors (I've also admitted to this one before)https://twitter.com/EpiEllie/status/1378016846297894912?s=19 …
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Yup. Me three. By now a year ago I knew I was wrong.
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Why public health people got this part wrong is puzzling. As soon as I read that Wuhan had shut down I knew that it was serious with enough confidence to start looking for a place to flee to from the city. And that was in Jan!
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Same. Maybe the lack of in-depth knowledge of epidemiology was actually beneficial for many in assessing the big picture The whole Wuhan situation following by waves through Iran, Italy, Spain...random untraceable cases popping up in U.S. I knew we were going to get hit hard
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But you changed as more data came in. Not so for some
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Sorry, I still don't understand why so many of you in academia kept downplaying
#SARSCoV2 in (Jan/Feb 2020). Didn't you read early chinese studies ? (they found alarming epi-parameters R0=3 and SI=4 days) Didn't you listen to@gmleunghku PK in Jan(!) '20 ? https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1505090-20200127.htm?spTabChangeable=0 … -
I'm really mystified by folks who kept saying "we don't have any evidence for X", as if research from Asia didn't count
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I disagree on personal attacks as you are receiving, but the point is that the precautory principle should have been applied. On exponential processes an early warning can make an important difference. Kudos for admitting your wrong.
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