It depends on a lot of factors, particularly government intervention, which is actually what I said in the next few tweets in that thread
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You could learn a lot from Taleb. Don't be stubborn, go back and see what he was saying back in Jan/Feb/Mar 2020
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You still don’t get it. Blocked!
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It is one thing to make an error, it is another to make light of it.
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The issue is you still think your mask stance was appropriate at the time. Focus on outcomes, not on probabilities. What's the worst outcome of wearing a mask vs what's the worst outcome of not wearing it. Don't try to assign probabilities based on data, that's impossible.
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Maybe we will one day find out how effective masks are at reducing coronavirus spread, but that's completely irrelevant to the question of whether you should wear a mask in an epidemic of a novel respiratory disease. The answer to that question is always yes.
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It's just hilarious how literally everyone else seems to get the point except
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Reminds me of that South Park episode where everyone in the world gets the "gay fish" joke except Kanye West!
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