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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 1
      Replying to @akanoego @nntaleb and

      That the projections being made which just continued exponential curves into infinity didn't actually represent good models for infectious disease spread

      4 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    2. Adam Kolar  🔰 🧦‏ @akanoego Apr 1
      Replying to @GidMK @nntaleb and

      without measures, exponential curve is a good approximation until we start getting close to herd immunity, which we really don't want to do, no?

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 1
      Replying to @akanoego @nntaleb and

      It depends on a lot of factors, particularly government intervention, which is actually what I said in the next few tweets in that thread

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Adam Kolar  🔰 🧦‏ @akanoego Apr 1
      Replying to @GidMK @nntaleb and

      I've only seen people making exponential projections as a warning against what would happen if the government didn't intervene, never seen anyone argue the pandemic grows exponentially no matter what

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 1
      Replying to @akanoego @nntaleb and

      In March/April there were dozens such predictions, which was mostly what I was responding to

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Adam Kolar  🔰 🧦‏ @akanoego Apr 1
      Replying to @GidMK @nntaleb and

      I would have to see the context. In any case, panic turned out to be a marginal issue in the grand scheme of things. The worst thing I remember is grocery stores running out of toilet paper. I think if there's any bias, it's towards underestimation of systemic risk.

      2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 1
      Replying to @akanoego @nntaleb and

      Imagine, seeing the context before calling someone a dangerous imbecile. Seems like a good basic rule of thumb to me

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    8. Adam Kolar  🔰 🧦‏ @akanoego Apr 1
      Replying to @GidMK @nntaleb and

      Taleb hates experts on complex systems for overestimating their ability to predict them. In his mind "overreaction" is the only appropriate reaction when faced with something so fundamentally uncertain and dangerous. He's been yelling at people like you since the pandemic began.

      2 replies 3 retweets 44 likes
    9. Adam Kolar  🔰 🧦‏ @akanoego Apr 1
      Replying to @akanoego @GidMK and

      wouldn't take it personally

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    10. Adam Kolar  🔰 🧦‏ @akanoego Apr 1
      Replying to @akanoego @GidMK and

      but he turned out to be correct about almost everything in this pandemic months before it became official guidance, that's why I follow him and not you, even though you seem much nicer 🤷‍♂️

      2 replies 2 retweets 42 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 1
      Replying to @akanoego @nntaleb and

      My position is that everyone makes mistakes, belittling people for admitting their errors is about as unscientific a move as you can make 🤷‍♂️

      4:03 PM - 1 Apr 2021
      • 1 Like
      • ludovico brandelli
      7 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb Apr 1
          Replying to @GidMK @akanoego and

          You are even more dangerous than I thought (and more of an imbecile). You still don't get it !

          10 replies 8 retweets 136 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Apr 1
          Replying to @nntaleb @akanoego and

          Ok. I guess I'll have to live in my imbecility then. Have a lovely day 👋

          9 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Dr. Brandon White, Pharm. D.‏ @ExtendedRelease Apr 1
          Replying to @GidMK @akanoego and

          The error wasn’t whether or not masks were a good idea. That’s what you admitted. The error is rejecting the precautionary principle in the face of a gigantic deadly unknown where masks *might* be beneficial. You wear them out of precaution (panic) to increase survival...

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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