@nntaleb the whole thread, but this even more https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1376304539897237508 …pic.twitter.com/mCyDRd8hlp
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In March/April there were dozens such predictions, which was mostly what I was responding to
I would have to see the context. In any case, panic turned out to be a marginal issue in the grand scheme of things. The worst thing I remember is grocery stores running out of toilet paper. I think if there's any bias, it's towards underestimation of systemic risk.
Your attitude in those tweets was unhelpful imo, but I remember many experts taking it at the time.
I'd be interested to see you quote any epidemiologist or serious health professional who claimed that an infectious disease was going to spread exponentially ad infinitum no matter what.
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