@nntaleb the whole thread, but this even more https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1376304539897237508 …pic.twitter.com/mCyDRd8hlp
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Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
Because everything known about respiratory viruses made it obvious they spread by respiration. Your scant actual thinking about the actual virus and it’s pathology is evident and on display.
Wearing masks had an asymmetric payoffs vs. the cost. Simple risk-management calculation.
Because you assume we should adopt what there is evidence for... this is profoundly idiotic. Adopting masks when you don't need to would cost a few million. NOT adopting masks when you need to, cost us trillions, not counting the lives.
Instead of saying 'If i am wrong... millions might die', you say 'THE EVIDENCE SAYS X'. It is the very definition of an Intellectual Yet idiot problem.
It’s literally like telling people smoking is fine. There was evidence for masks at the start although most people including all the higher ups either didn’t look or lied to save them. You misused your platform and spread bad info then said I just did what i was told
The worse part is not seeing it was wrong to say those things in the first place. Saying I don’t know would have be less damaging than saying the wrong thing
I keep a spare tire in my vehicle because it might help if I have a flat tire. I wear a mask because it may help me from spreading disease. If I am on the road with a flat and no spare, it is too fucking late.
What does this have to do with that??
I hope you’ve contemplated the answers (esp. what @diomarvro wrote). All fields of enquiry, including epidemiology, are too often blind to their flaws & limitations. Read NNT. Seriously, read NNT. You needn’t agree with everything but you’d be foolish to ignore him.
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