I think one overlooked aspect of Prof Ioannidis' recent paper, aside from the personal attacks, is that it is already being predictably misused The paper says nothing about the 'true' IFR of COVID-19https://twitter.com/SteveDeaceShow/status/1376324032321220616 …
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And that's probably quite a large underestimate. There's strong evidence from excess mortality calculations that the COVID-19 toll is underestimated quite a bit in the U.S.
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Where is the 100mm infections estimate coming from? Thats actually good, it will bring down the vaccine threshold (even if not all 100mm have immunity)
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Very crude guess. CDC estimated about 80 million infections in January, my rough estimate is somewhere around 100 million now
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Re: "With 550k deaths, that's an IFR in the U.S. of ~0.55%" Ironically, that's the IFR Ioannidis' initial paper would apply to the USA, not 0.23% nor 0.15%. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1370974719747493888 … https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1363938893498875906 …pic.twitter.com/tEMQxa9O4R
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Interestingly, right now I believe actual infections in US roughly equal the number of people who've had at least one dose. Let's do all we can to increase the number vaccinated and stop increasing the number infected!
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Darn, 100is still too high... perhaps up to 40million due to asymptomatic spread not found. We can't base the numbers on probabilities too far apart can we? We should only negotiate closer to what is tested, there have been millions done. Spring of 2020 would be most inaccurate.
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And I believe that's with a good portion of the most vulnerable population sheltering...infection rates in the elderly have been considerably lower than other ages...age normalized USA IFR is near 0.7%. Flu age-norm IFR is about .04%.pic.twitter.com/CiQLkBmzu7
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