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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 29

      Health Nerd Retweeted Steve Deace

      I think one overlooked aspect of Prof Ioannidis' recent paper, aside from the personal attacks, is that it is already being predictably misused The paper says nothing about the 'true' IFR of COVID-19https://twitter.com/SteveDeaceShow/status/1376324032321220616 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Steve DeaceVerified account @SteveDeaceShow
      One of the leading public health experts in the country says true IFR for Covid-19 is just 0.15%, which is barely above the 0.1% for the flu. Unless the virus really did come from a lab instead of nature, no more lockdowns or masks. Back to normal. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13554#.YGDCl4Wfy9o.twitter …
      19 replies 32 retweets 209 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 29

      Indeed, one of the areas in which Prof Ioannidis and I are in great agreement is that the IFR of the disease VARIES BY LOCATION

      2 replies 0 retweets 43 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 29

      Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

      Now, we differ in whether you can calculate a GLOBAL fatality rate for COVID-19 - I think it's not really possible - but even then the death rate for the United States is FAR higherhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1376304543172939777?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      3/n Moreover, I personally find the entire focus of the piece strange. I do not think it is reasonably possible to accurately estimate the GLOBAL IFR (infection fatality rate/ratio) of COVID-19
      Show this thread
      9:08 PM - 29 Mar 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 34 Likes
      • Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität blaaaa Bernhard Unsöld the sailing science shill ⛵️ Hussain Gilani Adrian Egli Jeff Cavanagh Kyle Wolf
      2 replies 1 retweet 34 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 29

          The POPULATION fatality rate in the U.S. - i.e. the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in the entire country - is about 0.17% Assuming 100% of the country has had COVID-19 (they haven't), that's still more than 0.15%

          4 replies 4 retweets 81 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 29

          More realistic estimates of the proportion of people who have been infected in the U.S. gives us about 100 million infections (roughly) With 550k deaths, that's an IFR in the U.S. of ~0.55%

          7 replies 3 retweets 74 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 29

          And that's probably quite a large underestimate. There's strong evidence from excess mortality calculations that the COVID-19 toll is underestimated quite a bit in the U.S.

          7 replies 4 retweets 70 likes
          Show this thread
        5. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Sam O'Riil‏ @Semoriil Mar 29
          Replying to @GidMK

          What's a point to calculate this *global* IFR? It's useless anyway, because it doesn't let us to predict anything - it varies too much locally.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Eric Lofgren‏ @GermsAndNumbers Mar 30
          Replying to @Semoriil @GidMK

          There is a deep desire to assign a single number to infectious diseases when many things (IFR, R0, etc.) are context-dependent and only valid for a particular place and time.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies

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