Indeed, one of the areas in which Prof Ioannidis and I are in great agreement is that the IFR of the disease VARIES BY LOCATION
-
-
Show this thread
-
Now, we differ in whether you can calculate a GLOBAL fatality rate for COVID-19 - I think it's not really possible - but even then the death rate for the United States is FAR higherhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1376304543172939777?s=20 …
Show this thread -
The POPULATION fatality rate in the U.S. - i.e. the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in the entire country - is about 0.17% Assuming 100% of the country has had COVID-19 (they haven't), that's still more than 0.15%
Show this thread -
More realistic estimates of the proportion of people who have been infected in the U.S. gives us about 100 million infections (roughly) With 550k deaths, that's an IFR in the U.S. of ~0.55%
Show this thread -
And that's probably quite a large underestimate. There's strong evidence from excess mortality calculations that the COVID-19 toll is underestimated quite a bit in the U.S.
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
It was predictable it would be (mis)used in this way. It’s one of the reasons trying to derive a singular figure for ‘global IFR’ is arguably a deliberate attempt to mislead, even before you delve in to the methodology & conclusions
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Exactly. Even if the GLOBAL IFR was 0.15%, it is still much higher than the GLOBAL IFR of seasonal flu. It was obvious that it would be used to compare to the US/European CFR of seasonal flu.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
One would think the guy who said this in May 2020 would want to quietly fade into the bushes a la Homer Simpson. And yet here we are.pic.twitter.com/macvfTD09J
-
awful, even when read in the context of the full article by Ioannidishttps://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ …
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
Of course covid cranks are going to use it as evidence that it’s just da flu brah! Flu hasn’t killed that many people in the US since 1918, they always miss that fact.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.