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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Hilda Bastian, PhD‏ @hildabast Mar 24

      Primary efficacy announcement from AstraZeneca: 76% (CI 68-82) - that's 15 days after 2nd dose. (That's what was pre-specified - a longer interval than other vaxes.) It's based on a count of 190 events: 14 still being assessed...1/2 https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/azd1222-us-phase-iii-primary-analysis-confirms-safety-and-efficacy.html … HT @AnitaN1007pic.twitter.com/5kK6gi7NHy

      9 replies 27 retweets 72 likes
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    2. Hilda Bastian, PhD‏ @hildabast Mar 24

      ... Age 65+: 85% efficacy (CI: 58-95). Severe disease: 0 in vax, 8 in placebo. Keep in mind (a) there are twice as many people vaxed, so it's even better than it looks; (b) this is a big area for adjudication. No adverse event data. Data on actual interim rate not reported. 2/2

      8 replies 9 retweets 54 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 24
      Replying to @hildabast

      Yep. They've got a more complex analysis for the numbers ofc, but a simple 2x2 calculation gives you a very statistically significant result for 8/10816 vs 0/21633

      6:36 PM - 24 Mar 2021
      • 5 Likes
      • Nabarun Dasgupta Ramin Patil Jeffrey Will Hoenig Steven
      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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        2. Hilda Bastian, PhD‏ @hildabast Mar 24
          Replying to @GidMK

          Sure, but we don't know how many haven't been adjudicated for severity.

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 24
          Replying to @hildabast

          True. If there are no cases in the vaccine arm after adjudication they might be able to make the claim of preventing severe disease quite reasonably though

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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