Sweden saw lower 2020 death spike than much of Europe - datahttps://reut.rs/3smp46u
-
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
Nah, usually you use a projection to model excess deaths (as I understand it) not just an average of the last 5 years. I think actually that the numbers might be correct but they've explained the methodology wrong
End of conversation
-
-
-
Sweden to Spain is like apples to pears.. Sweden to Finland/Norway/Denmark would be much more relevant. (If they consider all countries equal, maybe they could compare Sweden to China then? China had a very strict lockdown.. No? Why?!
) -
Its There, they sucked , but the author Of This tweet chery picked even from the text "However, Sweden did much worse than its Nordic neighbours, with Denmark registering just 1.5% excess mortality and Finland 1.0%. Norway had no excess mortality at all in 2020."
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
It's how everyone has been doing it, but it's an i accurate metric. Sweden's mortality had been dropping significantly for 20 years. 2019 was a record low and 2020 prepandemic and during the summer lull was matching or bettering 2019.
-
I think the Reuters article actually just got the explanation wrong - I'm fairly sure the % numbers are correct for Euromomo and they run a pretty reasonable prediction model I believe
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
Huh. That's a big question. There are all sorts of nudged and clever theoretical explanations why using 5 years average is wrong (these include population age structure, cohort shifts, dynamics of the background mortality, seasonal fluctuations in the previous years) 1/2
-
Yet, when the death excess is pretty big, all these differences in the baseline estimations don't matter much. 5 years average is performing surprisingly well for the simplicity of the method.
@jschoeley is leading a project comparing various baselines. 2/2
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
I found that the ranking of Swedish percent excess deaths in 2020 compared to other European countries is rather stable under different models. All models agree that Sweden did better than most of Europe (for the whole 2020, not during Spring).pic.twitter.com/ZgAL5jiS9F
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
Show additional replies, including those that may contain offensive content
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.