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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Peter Collignon‏ @CollignonPeter Mar 24

      Sweden saw lower 2020 death spike than much of Europe - datahttps://reut.rs/3smp46u 

      49 replies 75 retweets 255 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 24
      Replying to @CollignonPeter

      Um, that's not how you calculate excess mortality? @ikashnitsky got any thoughts?pic.twitter.com/Ig5oDfmZ3N

      5:31 PM - 24 Mar 2021
      • 3 Retweets
      • 43 Likes
      • Mummy Tobo Dutch MRA Chris Lancashire Michael Ernst 𝘾𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙯𝙚𝙣(Put 𝗟𝗡𝗣 Last)ⓧ💉💉 Vanesa Martinez Asit K Mishra 😷🪟 Jørgen Vinsløv Hansen Liz *Double Shot* Darvill 💉💉
      6 replies 3 retweets 43 likes
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        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 24
          Replying to @AndrewHayen @CollignonPeter @ikashnitsky

          Nah, usually you use a projection to model excess deaths (as I understand it) not just an average of the last 5 years. I think actually that the numbers might be correct but they've explained the methodology wrong

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. cgjunkie2020‏ @cgjunkie2020 Mar 24
          Replying to @GidMK @drajm and

          Sweden to Spain is like apples to pears.. Sweden to Finland/Norway/Denmark would be much more relevant. (If they consider all countries equal, maybe they could compare Sweden to China then? China had a very strict lockdown.. No? Why?! 🤔)

          3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. vladimir saltao‏ @SaltaoVladimir Mar 25
          Replying to @cgjunkie2020 @GidMK and

          Its There, they sucked , but the author Of This tweet chery picked even from the text "However, Sweden did much worse than its Nordic neighbours, with Denmark registering just 1.5% excess mortality and Finland 1.0%. Norway had no excess mortality at all in 2020."

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
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        2. David Steadson  🇦🇺 🇸🇪 🇪🇺 🌍‏ @DavidSteadson Mar 24
          Replying to @GidMK @CollignonPeter @ikashnitsky

          It's how everyone has been doing it, but it's an i accurate metric. Sweden's mortality had been dropping significantly for 20 years. 2019 was a record low and 2020 prepandemic and during the summer lull was matching or bettering 2019.

          5 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 24
          Replying to @DavidSteadson @CollignonPeter @ikashnitsky

          I think the Reuters article actually just got the explanation wrong - I'm fairly sure the % numbers are correct for Euromomo and they run a pretty reasonable prediction model I believe

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Ilya Kashnitsky‏ @ikashnitsky Mar 24
          Replying to @GidMK @CollignonPeter

          Huh. That's a big question. There are all sorts of nudged and clever theoretical explanations why using 5 years average is wrong (these include population age structure, cohort shifts, dynamics of the background mortality, seasonal fluctuations in the previous years) 1/2

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Ilya Kashnitsky‏ @ikashnitsky Mar 24
          Replying to @ikashnitsky @GidMK @CollignonPeter

          Yet, when the death excess is pretty big, all these differences in the baseline estimations don't matter much. 5 years average is performing surprisingly well for the simplicity of the method. @jschoeley is leading a project comparing various baselines. 2/2

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Jonas Schöley‏ @jschoeley Mar 29
          Replying to @GidMK @CollignonPeter @ikashnitsky

          I found that the ranking of Swedish percent excess deaths in 2020 compared to other European countries is rather stable under different models. All models agree that Sweden did better than most of Europe (for the whole 2020, not during Spring).pic.twitter.com/ZgAL5jiS9F

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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