Thread re Mumbai covid. Worrisome.https://twitter.com/muradbanaji/status/1373944575564341254 …
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Replying to @mikejohansenmd
Not saying this is wrong, but I'm always wary of explanations of high R(t) with lots of existing immunity that don't address the possibility that the existing immunity was overestimated due to serosurvey design (see: Manaus)
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Replying to @GidMK @mikejohansenmd
This survey you mean? It is a totally different design from the Manaus one, with selected sampling not just convenience plasma. Perhaps you can elaborate your views. http://www.tcs.tifr.res.in/~sandeepj/avail_papers/Mumbai-Serosurvey%20Technical%20report-NITI.pdf …pic.twitter.com/ESf3Jgs4h9
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Replying to @OYCar @mikejohansenmd
Sure - while the methodology was different to Manaus serosurvey, there are some weaknesses to this methodology as well. For one thing, the survey only sampled (I believe) 3/22 municipal divisions of the city
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So, plenty of potential for a biased overestimate when applied to the whole city. I'm not saying that's the case, but it could explain why there are large numbers of infections in an area previously thought to have had an attack rate of 50%+
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