Thread re Mumbai covid. Worrisome.https://twitter.com/muradbanaji/status/1373944575564341254 …
Not saying this is wrong, but I'm always wary of explanations of high R(t) with lots of existing immunity that don't address the possibility that the existing immunity was overestimated due to serosurvey design (see: Manaus)
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I have no idea if he is right. Argument is interesting. I’d trust his knowledge of local happenings over mine from Ohio.
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Definitely, and it's worrying either way. I just think that a lot of the "almost at herd immunity" claims from last year were based on studies that had a very high risk of bias and may have substantially overestimated attack rates
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This survey you mean? It is a totally different design from the Manaus one, with selected sampling not just convenience plasma. Perhaps you can elaborate your views. http://www.tcs.tifr.res.in/~sandeepj/avail_papers/Mumbai-Serosurvey%20Technical%20report-NITI.pdf …pic.twitter.com/ESf3Jgs4h9
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Sure - while the methodology was different to Manaus serosurvey, there are some weaknesses to this methodology as well. For one thing, the survey only sampled (I believe) 3/22 municipal divisions of the city
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