"The pandemic is on its way out" estimated an IFR 10-100× lower than the true range An example of a costless incorrect predictionhttps://twitter.com/freddiesayers/status/1263442908281294861 …
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If there is a cost, it does not appear to have substantially impacted Prof Gupta's academic or political careers, and so while it may be real (people can be mean) the benefits also appear to have been pretty substantial
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Early on, modelers had to pick another virus to model Covid19 after. Some chose the regular flu, which proved faulty on many fronts. Dr. Gupta chose the swine flu, which infected 10-20% of the world without us really noticing.
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In many ways, Covid19 has mimicked the swine flu more than the regular flu, so Dr. Gupta had it more right than wrong in her initial take.
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