6/n ...with some VERY notable exceptions! But remember, these are seroprevalence estimates taken in Italy and Spain in April 2020pic.twitter.com/Jsvk0mp7XZ
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Victoria's 2nd wave was a tragic exception - amazing in hindsight how poorly they protected aged care and how oblivious they were to what was going on there until it was too latehttps://twitter.com/TrotStats/status/1288017000489353216?s=20 …
It does seem that way. I remember noticing how high the CFR was relative to test positivity: CFR for the second wave, for cases between 15/6-25/9, and deaths with a one month lag of 14/7-25/10, is 793 deaths/18386 cases = 4.3%, despite test positivity peaking at around 2%:pic.twitter.com/5qy1d4qioA
thing this, to the GBD and related lunatics, if a *non-zero* number of high-risk people died after April that's a sign that a strategy was a complete failure, you can't argue with that kind of absolutism/misdirection
thing *is
Put another way, I think you could say that maintaining a low level of community spread has been by far the most effective way to protect the elderly, and that other measures, while definitely helpful, haven't come close.
Especially since, as you know, mortality rises *exponentially* with age. Measures are linear. Risk is exponential.
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