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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 22

      People often make the claim that, during the COVID-19 pandemic, we have "failed to protect the elderly" While initially this was definitely true (April/March 2020), I'm not sure the claim is accurate past that 1/npic.twitter.com/bcU0KHDkDb

      6 replies 8 retweets 61 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 22

      2/n I'm basing my opinion here on seroprevalence data. This is basically data looking at who has antibodies to COVID-19, and therefore who was previously infected We reviewed 100s of studies for our IFR paper. What did they show?https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10654-020-00698-1 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 22

      3/n Well, not all of them looked at the age-stratified rates of infection But of those that DID, an interesting pattern emerges

      1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 22

      3.5/n (Note: this is excluding low-quality seroprevalence estimates with selection bias issues. These cannot be trusted to give us an accurate estimation of infection rates by age)

      1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 22

      4/n For example, take REACT-2, a massive antibody prevalence study from the UK They found substantially FEWER people had been infected in older age groups than younger onespic.twitter.com/rdCAaRHCao

      1 reply 0 retweets 21 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 22

      5/n If you look at our supplementary appendix, where we give age-stratified prevalence figures for every study, you see a similar pattern in many places...pic.twitter.com/ppdzu4BzaG

      1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 22

      6/n ...with some VERY notable exceptions! But remember, these are seroprevalence estimates taken in Italy and Spain in April 2020pic.twitter.com/Jsvk0mp7XZ

      1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 22

      7/n Indeed, places that were hit really early on seem to show the opposite pattern Here are the results for the small Italian town Castiglione D'Adda. Older people were MORE likely to be infectedpic.twitter.com/U0nQlw5R88

      6:42 PM - 22 Mar 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 19 Likes
      • kfunk937 Gwen Brandt MD Massimo Sandal Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität KiaA 🇪🇺🇩🇪🇬🇧 Dr Rick (*) Sophie Wallijn 🌈 Paula Clemente
      1 reply 1 retweet 19 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 22

          8/n But that's the thing - in the very early epidemic, people did not protect the elderly However, what the evidence appears to show is that this was a relatively short-lived phenomenon

          1 reply 1 retweet 23 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 22

          9/n While this is somewhat speculative (mostly my opinion) I think it's fair to say that after the tragedy of the early first wave, most places implemented policies that substantially reduced the number of COVID-19 infections of elderly people

          2 replies 1 retweet 21 likes
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        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 22

          10/n All over the world, people took more care with their grandparents, aged care centres curtailed visitation, and generally we were all more aware of the danger to the elderly

          1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
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        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 22

          11/n This is seen in the numbers - many places that were hit even a few weeks later than Italy/Spain had lower infection rates in older people than younger

          1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 22

          12/n Even within countries, I suspect there may have been an impact For example, New York had ~some~ reduction in infection in older people, but Utah had a big reductionpic.twitter.com/oV4hUOODoz

          1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
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        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 22

          13/n Like I said, all of this is pretty speculative. It's hard to say how much we managed to protect older people because often the seroprevalence data is not very good

          1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 22

          14/n That being said, when we look at good quality seroprevalence estimates, in almost all cases after the initial surge it looks like we did in fact protect elderly people (at least to some extent)

          1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
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        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 22

          15/n Yes, elderly people have died more from COVID-19, but that's an obvious consequence of the age-stratified IFR. If lots of people get infected, lots of old people will be infected by default

          1 reply 1 retweet 23 likes
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        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 22

          16/n I think it is reasonable to say that in most places we HAVE protected the elderly to a great degree, and we have still suffered the consequences when the pandemic got out of control

          4 replies 2 retweets 25 likes
          Show this thread
        11. End of conversation

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