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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 21

      The somewhat depressing fact is that making COVID-19 predictions is essentially cost-free No one will hold you accountable for predicting wrong, if they even remember in a few months time

      10 replies 37 retweets 262 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 21

      The reality is that most people who have predicted the future of COVID with any certainty have made a lot of mistakes, but no one ever checks back to audit those in any meaningful way

      2 replies 7 retweets 74 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 21

      There are people who get massive media attention once a month when they confidently predict that COVID-19 will be over in 4-6 weeks time, even though they've been doing it for over a year now

      4 replies 12 retweets 94 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 21

      Here are two conflicting predictions, made at around the same time last year Neither of these is remotely correct. Neither author has been forced to spend any time going over how very wrong they werepic.twitter.com/JqI9aYudrs

      2 replies 6 retweets 39 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 21

      For clarity - the global toll of COVID-19 is large, but this "AI" model predicted 53 million deaths by April The Oxford study that predicted herd immunity by April/May in the UK was similarly enormously off target No one cares 🤷‍♂️

      6 replies 6 retweets 49 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Marco Valente‏ @eccemarco Mar 22
      Replying to @GidMK

      Marco Valente Retweeted Marco Valente

      I agree with you. I see an asymmetry though: optimistic predictions fanned the herd immunity hopes, and did more damage than pessimistic predictions. Example:https://twitter.com/eccemarco/status/1372567182748614659?s=19 …

      Marco Valente added,

      Marco Valente @eccemarco
      Replying to @freddiesayers @YouTube
      Has anyone come back to this interview, 10 months later? I did. In Lombardy, Italy, so far 0.3% of its *entire population* has died of covid19. Has professor Gupta apologies for her recklessly wrong predictions?
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 22
      Replying to @eccemarco

      You're not wrong

      3:20 AM - 22 Mar 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • Marco Valente Arch-Physicist 😷 #ZeroCovid
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

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