The somewhat depressing fact is that making COVID-19 predictions is essentially cost-free No one will hold you accountable for predicting wrong, if they even remember in a few months time
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The reality is that most people who have predicted the future of COVID with any certainty have made a lot of mistakes, but no one ever checks back to audit those in any meaningful way
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There are people who get massive media attention once a month when they confidently predict that COVID-19 will be over in 4-6 weeks time, even though they've been doing it for over a year now
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Here are two conflicting predictions, made at around the same time last year Neither of these is remotely correct. Neither author has been forced to spend any time going over how very wrong they werepic.twitter.com/JqI9aYudrs
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For clarity - the global toll of COVID-19 is large, but this "AI" model predicted 53 million deaths by April The Oxford study that predicted herd immunity by April/May in the UK was similarly enormously off target No one cares
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Replying to @GidMK
Marco Valente Retweeted Marco Valente
I agree with you. I see an asymmetry though: optimistic predictions fanned the herd immunity hopes, and did more damage than pessimistic predictions. Example:https://twitter.com/eccemarco/status/1372567182748614659?s=19 …
Marco Valente added,
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