The somewhat depressing fact is that making COVID-19 predictions is essentially cost-free No one will hold you accountable for predicting wrong, if they even remember in a few months time
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This was a very useful part of
@youyanggu ’s work. I wonder if there could be a Covid tracking project type wiki of predictions.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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The value of those who make decisions, or of those who support decision making processes, can be understood from the
#scenario(s) they evaluate. Their inadequacy, from the#prediction(s) they make!
https://twitter.com/Capobianco2005C/status/1372192302341455881?s=20 … -
PS: The fact is that evaluating a
#scenario and making a#prediction are quite different activities if we want to play an active role! We should prepare for the worst (evaluating the worst case scenarios) and work for the best (creating the conditions for the best case scenario)!
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But we could have had 53 million deaths if everyone believed it was just a flu. My issue with optimistic predictions, like Oxford study, is that they lead us to inactivity. Whereas a pessimistic prediction is more valuable b/c it might increase the awareness and preparedness.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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I agree with you. I see an asymmetry though: optimistic predictions fanned the herd immunity hopes, and did more damage than pessimistic predictions. Example:https://twitter.com/eccemarco/status/1372567182748614659?s=19 …
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You're not wrong
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