The somewhat depressing fact is that making COVID-19 predictions is essentially cost-free No one will hold you accountable for predicting wrong, if they even remember in a few months time
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For clarity - the global toll of COVID-19 is large, but this "AI" model predicted 53 million deaths by April The Oxford study that predicted herd immunity by April/May in the UK was similarly enormously off target No one cares
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The assumptions behind the neural net model are right there in the text below the table. (Sure, given those assumptions, the table shouldn’t have been published. But the caveat was right there.)
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The other article is based on a model with other scenarios, also... the top one was about right (0.1 x 0.14 = 1.4% IFR) but the yellow one made the news.pic.twitter.com/YAOAj6hvKB
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