The somewhat depressing fact is that making COVID-19 predictions is essentially cost-free No one will hold you accountable for predicting wrong, if they even remember in a few months time
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Here are two conflicting predictions, made at around the same time last year Neither of these is remotely correct. Neither author has been forced to spend any time going over how very wrong they werepic.twitter.com/JqI9aYudrs
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For clarity - the global toll of COVID-19 is large, but this "AI" model predicted 53 million deaths by April The Oxford study that predicted herd immunity by April/May in the UK was similarly enormously off target No one cares
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End of conversation
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The trick is that the last time they say it they'll be right and that's what will be remembered.
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Sadly people predicting upcoming resurgences if appropriate public health policy steps aren't taken have been painfully right time and time again for over a year...
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