The reality is that most people who have predicted the future of COVID with any certainty have made a lot of mistakes, but no one ever checks back to audit those in any meaningful way
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There are people who get massive media attention once a month when they confidently predict that COVID-19 will be over in 4-6 weeks time, even though they've been doing it for over a year now
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Here are two conflicting predictions, made at around the same time last year Neither of these is remotely correct. Neither author has been forced to spend any time going over how very wrong they werepic.twitter.com/JqI9aYudrs
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For clarity - the global toll of COVID-19 is large, but this "AI" model predicted 53 million deaths by April The Oxford study that predicted herd immunity by April/May in the UK was similarly enormously off target No one cares
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I do, and I've lost good friendships for telling people to not be irresponsible with the numbers they are publishing.
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On a micro scale, sure, but overall it's extremely rare
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It's not just covid - stock market, horse racing, everything.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Even better is being able to tell people that "X will reduce/stop Covid", and then blaming people for not executing X correctly when X fails in reducing/stopping Covid.
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Feel free to check my twitter feed. I stand by everything (everything) I've said.
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