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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 21

    The somewhat depressing fact is that making COVID-19 predictions is essentially cost-free No one will hold you accountable for predicting wrong, if they even remember in a few months time

    9:03 PM - 21 Mar 2021
    • 37 Retweets
    • 262 Likes
    • Tak Frances Acorn Jonathan Howard Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität Johannes Richter Per Holmberg Andrew McCullough RJ - Nerd Dad 😷 Fully Vaccinated! Jay Adam
    10 replies 37 retweets 262 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 21

        The reality is that most people who have predicted the future of COVID with any certainty have made a lot of mistakes, but no one ever checks back to audit those in any meaningful way

        2 replies 7 retweets 74 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 21

        There are people who get massive media attention once a month when they confidently predict that COVID-19 will be over in 4-6 weeks time, even though they've been doing it for over a year now

        4 replies 12 retweets 94 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 21

        Here are two conflicting predictions, made at around the same time last year Neither of these is remotely correct. Neither author has been forced to spend any time going over how very wrong they werepic.twitter.com/JqI9aYudrs

        2 replies 6 retweets 39 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 21

        For clarity - the global toll of COVID-19 is large, but this "AI" model predicted 53 million deaths by April The Oxford study that predicted herd immunity by April/May in the UK was similarly enormously off target No one cares 🤷‍♂️

        6 replies 6 retweets 49 likes
        Show this thread
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Alexis R. Santos-Lozada, Demographer Royal‏ @AppDemography Mar 21
        Replying to @GidMK

        I do, and I've lost good friendships for telling people to not be irresponsible with the numbers they are publishing.

        1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 21
        Replying to @AppDemography

        On a micro scale, sure, but overall it's extremely rare

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Trot Stats‏ @TrotStats Mar 21
        Replying to @GidMK

        It's not just covid - stock market, horse racing, everything.

        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. New conversation
      2. Mazda Sabouri‏ @msabouri Mar 21
        Replying to @GidMK

        Even better is being able to tell people that "X will reduce/stop Covid", and then blaming people for not executing X correctly when X fails in reducing/stopping Covid.

        1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
      3. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. 𝙹𝚘𝚎 𝚅𝚒𝚙𝚘𝚗𝚍‏ @jvipondmd Mar 21
        Replying to @GidMK

        Feel free to check my twitter feed. I stand by everything (everything) I've said.

        1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
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