Herd immunity through natural infection was always an absurd idea that made no sense whatsoever Herd immunity through population vaccination is more complex
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This is something covered in the John Snow Memorandum quite well, actually. There's no guarantee that immunity (even vaccine-induced) will last sufficiently long to ensure herd immunity
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Even if enough people are immune locally to prevent disease transmission, the disease is almost certain to remain endemic in some parts of the world given how poorly we've spread out the vaccines
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Moreover, given the expected mutation of the virus, chances are ~eventually~ people will be getting reinfected in fairly large numbers. Even vaccines are likely to require boosters
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Over the 6-month timeframe it's probably around 1% of people who can be reinfected, but push that out to a year, two etc...chances are protection will wane somewhat
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So while we might have LOCAL herd immunity, particularly in richer countries, it's probable that the virus will be around for a very long time to come
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It's a bit like everyone's shock when they realised it could mutate, something pointed out in January but somehow escaping people high up in gov.
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I think the main idea of Zero COVID varies somewhat, but I do think it is unlikely that we will eradicate the disease. It may be possible, but I do not think we will do it
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