“These data suggest that reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 is rare and occurs in less than 1% of individuals...”











https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1372329717928325125 …
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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Nsikan Akpan, PhD Retweeted Eric Topol
“These data suggest that reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 is rare and occurs in less than 1% of individuals...”











https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1372329717928325125 …
Nsikan Akpan, PhD added,
This is a great study and really interesting, but that particular statement is from the intro and I'm not sure their data is sufficient to demonstrate it adequately
The challenge is, as with similar studies, using routinely collected clinical data does not allow for good ascertainment of asymptomatic cases. They had a very useful sensitivity analysis to check this, but even then the inherent selection bias remains
Problem is, if you're using PCR tests which are given more often to symptomatic people, you'll potentially miss asymptomatic infections. This is not a problem for severe disease, but is definitely a rationale for vaccination
So what would you add to better detect asymptomatic cases? Also they make a similar statement in the discussion.
Also their analysis included people with low symptomatologypic.twitter.com/f2aTy5F8E8
Yes I'm not saying this is the fault of the researchers, nor that they're wrong per se, but the inherent issue is that using retrospective analyses of routinely collected data you're always at risk of selection bias
Selection bias? They screened the whole country by providing easy/free access to testing for a year. I’m not trying disagree with you; just wondering what would improve the study?
Sure, but people with no symptoms are less likely to get tested. Same with people who have had COVID-19 before. They didn't screen the country, exactly, which means that the bias is hard to exclude
I think the sensitivity analysis may be evidence of this - the % infected doubles from 0.65% (0.51-0.82%) to 1.2%. The numbers are small so it may not be statistically significant, but it's still interestingpic.twitter.com/1yqWf0Yqgb
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