“These data suggest that reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 is rare and occurs in less than 1% of individuals...”











https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1372329717928325125 …
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The challenge is, as with similar studies, using routinely collected clinical data does not allow for good ascertainment of asymptomatic cases. They had a very useful sensitivity analysis to check this, but even then the inherent selection bias remains
Problem is, if you're using PCR tests which are given more often to symptomatic people, you'll potentially miss asymptomatic infections. This is not a problem for severe disease, but is definitely a rationale for vaccination
My understanding is that was their summary of OTHER studies. Their study finds something like 80%, but I haven't read the paper yet.
Having read it now, I *think* what they are saying is with 80% protection, reinfection happens in about 1% of cases, because about 1 in 20 people (exposed or unexposed) get exposed in a given wave. So 1 in 100 actual reinfections, 4 novel. So those numbers are self consistent.
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