Absolutely right. The various aspects of the failure need more thorough unpacking in a medium that is probably not twitter, but it is actually striking to me how *much* we (meaning epidemiologists) knew a year ago about what this virus is capable of, and how little it has changedhttps://twitter.com/ArisKatzourakis/status/1371771506489974785 …
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Just as a for instance, the varying severity by age has been known pretty much since Jan 2020. And so has the potential for presymptomatic transmission, which is absolutely essential to the effort needed for control, and the importance of rapid testing
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I was very aware of the potential for minimally symptomatic transmission because of my involvement in this (true story - I wrote my draft on an overnight flight at the end of feb. Then we all got slammed and it wasn't submitted for months)https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7711496/ …
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Does 'clinically asymptomatic' mean that a lot of cases are not detected? Yes it does, and that led to a lot of mistaken confusion about whether population immunity was stealthily building. Why was this mistaken?
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Because we had seen Wuhan. We had seen Iran. Italy was happening before our eyes. We stood doing nothing while the flames overtook our neighbors' houses, and then acted surprised when the fire came for us.
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Since then there's been far too much clever arguing from some quarters that those who died were old anyway, or had something else wrong with them, or didn't really have covid at all. I wish people making such arguments would apply their intellectual energies to fighting the virus
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There *are* important discussions to be had around how to make things sustainable, and how to get resources to people so they can comply with restrictions, and how much risk to permit. This is all completely correct and the time for it was last summer
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But instead of responsible pandemic management, in too many places we got the culture wars, stoked by contradictory messaging and foolish (not to say ignorant) promises that the pandemic was past. We all know how that worked out
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Finally, when I think of the huge numbers who have lost their lives in the last few months, I can't help but think how many of them would have been vaccinated now, and protected. If only we had done more to stop the virus before it got to them. /end
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Yes I can't stop thinking about that too. Hindsight is 20/20 and all that, but we knew in October that we'd have vaccines by Feb at the latest and yet...
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