You may have seen the massive viral tweets about how staying at home doesn't prevent COVID-19 deaths These were based on a paper with what we think are quite significant flaws Our full critique now preprinted here:https://osf.io/63efj/
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However, together with
@lonnibesancon@RaphaelWimmer and@FLAHAULT we have identified quite a few further problemsinShow this thread -
In particular,
@RaphaelWimmer has found that repeating the author's methodology on simulated data where an effect of lockdowns is clearly visible results in no effectShow this thread -
Even using the dataset that the authors sent through, which does show an effect, slight perturbations in the data seem to remove it
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What this means is that it is likely that the methodology in the study would not identify a benefit of lockdowns even unless they were unrealistically effective, and even then almost never
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Forgot to mention - the original article has an Altmetric of 7,000 already. Just one of the tweets about it got 3,500 RTs. It's been all over the news already and has 150k accesses
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End of conversation
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