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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 16

    Health Nerd Retweeted Stuart Ritchie

    A useful fact to consider when thinking about the risk/reward and these blood clots is that the death rate from COVID-19 in 20-55 year olds ranges from 1 in 16,000 to 1 in 250 If all 7 clots were directly caused by the vaccine, that would be a rate of 1 in 230,000https://twitter.com/StuartJRitchie/status/1371806008054534145 …

    Health Nerd added,

    Stuart Ritchie @StuartJRitchie
    Well it's nice to have a prediction come true... sort of. My new piece on the AstraZeneca suspensions in Europe (and how they're a very bad idea): https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2021/03/europe-s-astrazeneca-vaccine-suspension-bad-science-will-cost-lives … pic.twitter.com/TdbCm5MJkl
    12:27 PM - 16 Mar 2021
    • 32 Retweets
    • 90 Likes
    • Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität Proud European from Austria🇪🇺🇦🇹 🌏 Enrique del Castillo Bérenger, MD Leesa 'soapy clean hands' Klich, MSc 🇨🇦 (*) Eddie Chalk 💧 Ian "Department of Diseasology" 🍩 Musgrave Helix
    11 replies 32 retweets 90 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Dr Julie Blommaert  👩🏼‍🔬‏ @drjulie_b Mar 16
        Replying to @GidMK

        And how many blood clot type events do we see in covid patients?

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. JH // from fairest tweeps we desire increase‏ @jhan2qt Mar 16
        Replying to @drjulie_b @GidMK

        almost 20% cumulative incidence in those hospitalized (20-30% of reported cases), i.e. roughly 5%?

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. mother of all gay bombs‏ @butts_4_jesus Mar 16
        Replying to @GidMK

        What’s the typical threshold for a vaccine vs a medication , though, since they are given to already healthy people? 1 in 230,000 is obviously quite low, and the risk of covid (and clotting with covid) vastly higher or course, but I’m wondering how this compares to other vaccines

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. David‏ @davide14348723 Mar 16
        Replying to @GidMK

        That's misleading. What if it's a bad batch and currently it's 1 in 1,000 getting blood clots? We should evaluate current doses/day and clots/day and compare that to equivalent population size and clots/day. If there is significant variance could be a bad batch of vaccines.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Mike Dee‏ @MikeDeeeeeee Mar 16
        Replying to @GidMK

        This comparison is not correct though as it assumes the ones affected are certain to get COVID-19. In reality, they would receive a different vaccine, just somewhat later.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. kenlipartito‏ @kenlipartito Mar 17
        Replying to @MikeDeeeeeee @GidMK

        If there were another vaccine available. That’s the problem. Europe is short on vaccines. How long do you wait?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. JoeGrobe‏ @GrobeJoe Mar 16
        Replying to @GidMK

        Agree, perhaps also worth noting that - as far as I understand - the blot clots observed seem to resemble heparin induced blot knots that are a known side effect to this drug (that is frequently being prescribed despite the low risk of thrombosis)

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Carmel Apicella‏ @ApicellaCarmel Mar 16
        Replying to @GidMK

        in Australia, where there is little/no virus in community, the individual could reason the vaccine is currently the greater risk. But Sooner or later the virus will arrive. If everyone waits to jump in the vaccination queue, that queue will be too long to offer vaccine in time.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. kali‏ @kezhall Mar 17
        Replying to @GidMK

        And that more people in the placebo group had blood clots than those who had the vaccine.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Proud European from Austria 🇪🇺 🇦🇹  🌏‏ @e2dot7182818284 Mar 17
        Replying to @kezhall @GidMK

        The details are a bit more complicated than than, the over all reasoning still lands in the same place, as @GidMK explains here👇https://link.medium.com/l5UMr2YvHeb 

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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