New @PEI_Germany report provides much needed clarity to the #AstraZeneca "pause" in Germany. Not yet available in English. I will try to summarize. /thread https://www.pei.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/newsroom/meldungen/faq-temporaere-aussetzung-astrazeneca.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=2 …
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That wouldn’t apply to the two extra cases on Monday when they made the decision. I am wondering why this hasn’t been reported in the UK or India or anywhere outside of Europe yet though.
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Why not? If they're just rerunning the same set of statistical tests it's a similar situation. If they wait 2 weeks will it still be 'significantly' higher?
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Probably not. But one should keep in mind that similar cases have been reported from several other European countries the days before, but hardly any cases in the UK the months before, so it surely makes sense to rule out a batch contamination.
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I've struggled "philosophically" about multiple comparisons in the context of adverse events. E.g. what error rate should we afford given the urgency of a particular intervention? I've come to believe that it's more complex than hypothesis testing. Intriguing problem nonetheless!
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I agree it's more complex. In all honesty, I don't know if I think that running a standard hypothesis test makes much sense in this situation at all - surely if we're monitoring for signals statistical significance should not be the deciding factor
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It sounds like they haven't. People are about to die from covid-19 because of a pretty simple statistics mistake. Truly

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